Impressions News

IMPRESSIONS Results in Brief: Analysing complex socio-economic interactions to improve our ability to tackle climate change

Thu, 21 Mar 2019 11:13:00 +0200

IMPRESSIONS was featured in the CORDIS Results in Brief rubric, hosting summaries of successful EU-funded projects.

"The consequences of climate change are rendered even more complex and challenging to predict when coupled with rapid and uncertain socio-economic changes, such as population growth, technological advances, and shifting international cooperation.

Taking this complexity into account, the EU-supported IMPRESSIONS project applied a cross-sector approach to identify effective pathways for climate action, efficacious across a range of multi-scale case studies."

Read the full article here: Analysing complex socio-economic interactions to improve our ability to tackle climate change

IMPRESSIONS' Success Story: Creating workable scenarios to deal with climate change

Wed, 20 Feb 2019 10:23:00 +0200

IMPRESSIONS is now featured in the European Commission's Success Story rubric, among other projects which managed to exhibit research and results of great social and scientific value. The article dedicated to IMPRESSIONS focuses on the potential of our innovative climate change modelling framework.

Here is some of the story:

Predicting the consequences of climate change is highly complex as it interacts with and is influenced by many other factors, including socio-economic change, human capacity to adapt, consumption patterns and sustainability goals.

To try to make sense of such complexities and help European policymakers design solutions based on sound information, the EU-funded IMPRESSIONS project has developed an innovative modelling framework. This is based on four possible scenarios which the team has applied to five case studies in Scotland, Iberia, Hungary, Europe as a whole, and Central Asia.

The project used a wide range of different models to explore the impacts of high-end climate change on agriculture, biodiversity, urban development, forestry, water resources, flooding and human health. It considered interactions between these different sectors as they compete for resources such as land, water and energy and, where possible, took account of interactions across scales, such as how trade flows at the global level define the level of food imports to Europe.

Find the full article here.

Overview of EU Climate Change Adaptation Projects

Wed, 20 Feb 2019 10:00:00 +0200

A comprehensive EU resource combining information and synthesising the essence of selected EU project showcases strategies for seeking adaptation solutions. IMPRESSIONS together with our sister project HELIX are both featured in the High-end Solutions section. The document also covers topics such as Nature Based Solutions, Disaster Risk Reduction and Economics of Adaptation.

"Over the past 2 years, we have asked over 70 of our Framework Programme 7 and Horizon 2020 projects to re-align their objectives with those of the Paris Agreement and its 1.5°C/2°C goal. We are grateful for their flexibility and their strong commitment to make their results relevant for decision and policymaking. In line with this request, the projects in this booklet have provided information on risks and impacts of global warming above 1.5°C/2°C and the costs and benefits of adaptation. They have helped to make our crops and forests more resilient to climate change, improved the capacity to protect our societies from climate-related threats, and fostered the development of nature-based solutions and climate services to support decision-making."

All details in the official booklet.

The IMPRESSIONS Policy Day: Final event envisions future steps

Thu, 01 Nov 2018 11:50:00 +0200

What could high-end climate change (warming of above 2°C) lead to? How can we prevent dramatic climate and socio-economic scenarios? These are some of the questions researched within the IMPRESSIONS project and presented at the Policy Day in Brussels on 22 October 2018.

IMPRESSIONS Final dissemination event in Brussels

The final policy event encompassed the mission of IMPRESSIONS, as well as the value and impact of the project with respect to the results and case studies conducted within the five year collaboration of 26 partners from 16 European countries. The work behind the IMPRESSIONS project and the next steps towards achieving the vision were key topics at the Policy Day in Brussels, with policy integration being crucial in response to high-end climate change.

Within a panel debate, participants talked about the integrated climate and socio-economic scenarios and modelling the impacts of high-end climate change. With lots of discussions over lunch and coffee, participants covered a wide range of topics related to the impacts of high-end climate change and the effectiveness of solutions to high-end scenarios.

At the Final Policy event, IMPRESSIONS launched the High-end solutions Information Hub, a new online resource, which provides comprehensive knowledge on the nature and scale of more extreme and long-term consequences of climate and socio-economic change. With strong visual illustration of the researched topics, the tool is created to guide scientists and decision-makers working on adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development through the collections of results, recommendations and methods.

High-end Solutions to Extreme Climate Change in a New Online Resource

Wed, 31 Oct 2018 17:46:00 +0200

With climate change becoming an increasingly hot topic globally, the EU-funded project IMPRESSIONS launches a new online resource to provide a scientifically robust and policy-relevant understanding of the nature and scale of more extreme and long-term consequences of climate and socio-economic change, and guide the use of this knowledge by decision-makers working on adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development.

The climate is changing, largely due to the warming effects of increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and other human-made emissions. We are not yet on track to meet the Paris Agreement goal to limit global average temperatures to 2°C (and ideally 1.5°C) above pre-industrial levels. Current greenhouse gas emission trends point to much more substantial warming, with possible increases of 4°C or more in the long-term, which could be devastating in many different ways.

The High-end Solutions Information Hub is a synthesis of the knowledge and results acquired during a 5-year collaboration of 26 partners from different scientific backgrounds and 16 European countries, who have worked intensively with numerous stakeholders. The resource guides scientists and practitioners alike through interactive and user-friendly collections of results, recommendations and methods, to assist decision-making and future research in adaptation and mitigation measures in a future involving extreme climate and socio-economic change.

The IMPRESSIONS project researched what a future above 2°C could look like, which we define as "high-end climate change". The project also assessed what decisions we can take to help reduce the impacts of such high-end climate change.

However, climate change isn’t the only problem the world faces; we live in a world with poverty, poor health, water shortages, a lack of food security, land degradation, resource depletion, mounting social inequalities and weak governance systems. These global problems are all closely interlinked and our current solutions for tackling them tend to be over-simplistic.

IMPRESSIONS has modelled the possible impacts of high-end climate change combined with other key global challenges for five case studies across Europe and Central Asia. Stakeholders have helped develop a vision for what we want the year 2100 to look like, as well as pathways and concrete guidelines for action to move society closer to this vision of a sustainable future.

All this knowledge is collected and presented for future use via the IMPRESSIONS High-end Solutions Information Hub, where interested parties can find useful results and methodology organised by Key Questions and Case Study Area:

Key Questions:

Case Studies:

"We need considerably greater mitigation efforts to achieve the Paris Agreement target, and so it is important that we also prepare for the consequences of high-end climate change. Our research shows that concerted and coordinated action is needed at all scales and in all sectors to develop and implement pathways for adaptation, mitigation and transformation towards sustainable lifestyles and economies," explains project co-ordinator Prof Prof Paula Harrison, Center for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), UK.

The new resource is openly available at www.highendsolutions.eu. Twelve explanatory videos are available in the Information Hub and also on our YouTube Channel.

IMPRESSIONS at the ESP Regional Europe Conference 2018, Spain

Sun, 28 Oct 2018 14:23:00 +0200

In October, IMPRESSIONS joined the ESP Regional Europe conference 2018, held in San Sebastian, Spain in order to reach out to nearly 500 attendants from diverse research and industry backgrounds.

Themed Ecosystem services in a changing world: From theory to practice, the conference was dedicated to bringing scientific knowledge and recent findings relevant to ecosystem services to the roundtables of policy makers and stakeholders. Thereby, the event proved a perfect fit for IMPRESSIONS’ objective to raise awareness about alternative high-end climate change scenarios on both national and global level.

With the interplay between climate change, ecosystem services and environmental policies made well evident throughout the otherwise varied sessions, the conference served to demonstrate the significance of effective collaboration and coordination across disciplines and expertise.

Stop by our stand at #ESP18EU to check out some of our project deliverables in print!

Visit our website at ➡️ https://t.co/WCSN7rE1zF #ClimateChange #ClimateAction #FP7 #IPCC @IPCC_CH @EU_ENV @EU_MARE @EUClimateAction @CORDIS_EU pic.twitter.com/HpGHPK5WX5
— IMPRESSIONS (@IMPRESSIONS_EU) October 18, 2018

Article Alert: Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe

Mon, 08 Oct 2018 10:16:00 +0300

New IMPRESSIONS supported publication titled Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces conducts a sensitivity analysis using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. The paper was published in R egional Environmental Change and is available open access.

Abstract:

Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use.

Original Source:

Fronzek, S., Carter, T.R., Pirttioja, N. et al. Reg Environ Change (2018).
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8

Applications Open for the IMPRESSIONS-hosted Session at the Scenarios Forum 2019

Thu, 30 Aug 2018 10:21:00 +0300

The Scenarios Forum 2019 will be taking place from 11 to 13 March 2019, at the University of Denver, Denver, CO and has now opened its call for abstracts for one of 40 compelling session topics revolving around the common theme of "Forum for Scenarios and Climate Change".

A rapidly expanding set of activities is extending and applying the new framework on integrated climate change scenarios. Researchers are using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and other approaches to characterizing future societal and environmental conditions to investigate global change issues, including the Sustainable Development Goals. The Scenarios Forum aims to bring together a diverse set of communities working with the new framework to share their experiences, progress, and plans.

Within the forum IMPRESSIONS is holding a session to present methods and findings from its case studies that have downscaled and integrated high-end climate (based on the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and socio-economic scenarios (based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) across multiple scales.

The session named "DOWNSCALING AND ENRICHING THE RCP-SSP SCENARIO FRAMEWORK AS A BASIS FOR CO-CREATING INTEGRATED AND TRANSFORMATIVE SOLUTIONS TO HIGH-END CLIMATE CHANGE" will be chaired by IMPRESSIONS co-ordinator Prof Paula Harrison, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, UK and Prof Timothy Carter, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Finland.

With two confirmed speakers from IMPRESSIONS, the session is now open to further abstract submissions from other projects or case studies that have downscaled and enriched the RCP-SSP scenario framework (both climate and socio-economic information) within the context of multi-scale and multi-sector impact and adaptation assessment for high-end climate change.

Hurry up and apply for session 26: https://www.scenariosforum2019.com/call-for-abstracts/

DEADLINE: 28 Septmber 2018

IMPRESSIONS Invited Speakers:

Invited speaker 1: Kasper Kok, Wageningen University, The Netherlands & Mark Rounsevell, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany – Developing multi-scale RCP-SSP scenarios for modelling impacts and vulnerabilities to high-end climate change in Europe and Central Asia

Invited speaker 2: Laszlo Pinter, Central European University, Hungary/International Institute for Sustainable Development, Canada & Tiago Capela Lourenço, University of Lisbon, Portugal – Co-creation of adaptation, mitigation and transformation pathways in the context of multi-scale RCP-SSP scenarios

IMPRESSIONS at the Adaptation Futures 2018 Conference

Sat, 30 Jun 2018 17:42:00 +0300

Adaptation Futures 2018, the fifth in the Adaptation Futures international conference series on global adaptation, was recently held in from 18 to 21 June in Cape Town, SA. The conference aimed to facilitate dialogues for solutions between key actors from diverse perspectives and regions and attracted over 1300 scientists, practitioners, business leaders and policymakers from around the world.

During the event IMPRESSIONS partners held several sessions presenting important scientific results. IMPRESSIONS also had a stand at the event allowing the dissemination of key project results, including the demonstating and collecting feedback about the project's soon-to-be-launched Information Hub, distributing the collaborative High-End Climate Change policy booklet and the project's case study policy briefs.

Come visit us at our @IMPRESSIONS_EU stand with @Voegelvrij @AdaptFutures #AF2018 pic.twitter.com/KWdzGmK1cP
— Katharina Hölscher (@Kath_Hoelscher) June 19, 2018

IMPRESSIONS at the 5th ECCB, Finland

Fri, 15 Jun 2018 14:28:00 +0300

In June 2018, IMPRESSIONS joined the 5th European Congress of Conservation Biology (ECCB 2018) held in Jyväskylä, Finland, to demonstrate its key deliverables and progress towards puzzling out high-end climate change scenarios and bringing them closer to policy makers and stakeholders.

Themed Planetary wellbeing, the fifth installment of the congress gathered hundreds of conservation biologists and ecologists from around the globe. With a strong presence were the early researchers eager to leave their own novel scientific mark in the improvement of Earth’s health.

Reaching out to young experts with IMPRESSIONS’ findings and know-how could be crucial in resolving knowledge into future-proof and environmentally friendly strategies and practices.

What will the future look like in a high-end #climatechange scenario
(involving temperature increases above 2°C)

Pop by stand C108, #ECCB2018 to pick up a High-end Climate Change booklet or one of our policy briefs to learn about our work!#climate #sustainability https://t.co/CmALlq6c7l
— IMPRESSIONS (@IMPRESSIONS_EU) June 14, 2018

Final IMPRESSIONS stakeholder workshop: Packaging innovative solutions for climate change adaptation

Thu, 07 Jun 2018 16:29:00 +0300

The final IMPRESSIONS stakeholder workshop took place on 25-27 April 2018, in Tiszafüred, Hungary with the participation of about 60 stakeholders and project partners from all over Europe. The main goal of the workshop was to:

Compare and explore previously developed visions, scenarios, strategies and modelling across different scales (local, regional, national, European);
Package innovative solutions by defining robust strategies and combine game changing approaches across scales & scenarios;
Identify support needs and implications for EU level policy-making.

The workshop was the last of a series of stakeholder workshops carried out in the five case studies (Hungary, Iberia, Scotland, Europe and Central Asia) during the course of the project.

Watch the workshop video to get an idea about the event and IMPRESSION's work:

Videographer: Fellegi Creation

IMPRESSIONS Summer School: Preventing extreme climate change could be in your hands

Wed, 30 May 2018 17:55:00 +0300

Careful planning of your weekly food shop, saving on your electricity bills and saying no to yet another straw in your cocktail could be the first steps towards preventing extreme climate change in the future.

Thirty young scientists and practitioners got together for a five-day summer school in Sofia, Bulgaria to work out what are the different ways to prevent and adapt to the possibility of a 7-degrees warmer future.

Placing climate change in the Bulgarian context through EU FP7 project IMPRESSIONS modelling tool, it became evident that a future with extreme climate change might mean that the country will end up deprived of key sectors such as agriculture and tourism.

Climate change is not just about nature and the environment but also about how society is affected and responds and there is a range of actions we can take to go away from extreme climate change.

"When running the model in our group, Bulgaria turned out as the country with the lowest food production in Europe, in contrast to a rather developed sector at the moment," explains Bramka, TU DELFT, the Netherlands.

Steps could be individual for each national and local context and while working out what could be the pathways to a common positive vision, it became evident that in the case of Bulgaria a key strategy would be to work toward more politically engaged and corrective society.

For example, when looking at a scenario featuring destruction of the the Pirin mountain national park , while the government took private investor interests into account and is promising more employment, in the long term for locals, other solutions such as eco-tourism are actually more likely to achieve such goals.

How do the scenarios relate to the situation in Bulgaria? Is it a "Mission impossible", "Artificial happiness" or something else? pic.twitter.com/UKTBG3WEhC
— IMPRESSIONS (@IMPRESSIONS_EU) May 24, 2018

"Destroying the national park could mean a more climate change prone future, which could ultimately destroy winter tourism in the area, currently a main income source there," says local Iliyana Kuzmova.

"We’ve explored both worst-case and very positive scenarios, but we always worked towards a positive vision that would guide us to identify the necessary steps towards getting to a better future," says Prof Paula Harrison, CEH, UK.

"But what also became evident is that the later we take action the more likely we are to end up with unwanted consequences in the future".

IMPRESSIONS 5th General Assembly: the Final Countdown

Thu, 19 Apr 2018 17:29:00 +0300

The fifth IMPRESSIONS General Assembly took place from 23 to 25 January 2018 at the Parthenope University of Naples in Italy, marking the long-awaited final stage of the project.

Looking back at four years of building, testing and implementing frameworks, methods and models combined with extensive stakeholder engagement, IMPRESSIONS is now entering the last year of its lifetime.

Through knowledge co-creation with decision-makers, IMPRESSIONS aims to improve understanding and assessment of potential impacts from high-end climate and socio-economic scenarios and the need for transformative solutions to reduce risks and vulnerabilities. The project has created pathways of adaptation and mitigation strategies for reducing vulnerability and moving towards a vision of a sustainable future. The pathways explore complex interactions across scales (global, European and regional) and sectors (agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water, health, urban) in effectively adapting or mitigating potential impacts due to high-end climate and socio-economic change.

Moving towards its finalisation, IMPRESSIONS is now providing an overview of the sensitivities of different sector models across Europe to changes in climate and socio-economic drivers. Additionally, the team is creating quantitative and qualitative comparisons and syntheses, regarding methods and results throughout the project.

What is next?

A special IMPRESSIONS issue in the journal Regional Environmental Change will feature key project methods, results and conclusions.
The final results will be available within the exclusive IMPRESSIONS Information Hub in October 2018, right after the end of the project in a range of formats (videos, infographics, practitioner guides).
A series of policy briefs will provide policy recommendations based on project results.
A final stakeholder workshop will bring together key actors from all case studies.
IMPRESSIONS will be part of the 2018 Adaptation Futures Conference with a number of sessions and a dedicated stand.
A series of videos and infographics will introduce results and findings to a broader audience.

The fifth and last General Assembly took place to gather the IMPRESSIONS team and gave participants the opportunity for a fruitful discussion about the project’s final steps.

IMPRESSIONS Research: Positive tipping points in a rapidly warming world

Mon, 12 Mar 2018 20:45:00 +0200

Identifying the opportunities and constraints for fundamental transformations in global systems dynamics is key for meeting the UNFCCC CoP21 goal of keeping global warming ‘well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts towards 1.5 °C’ (‘the 2–1.5 °C target’).

While those systems currently seem to be driving the unsustainable and inequitable use of the Earth's resources, a new IMPRESSIONS- and GREEN-WIN-supported research reviews and introduces the quite opposite notion of positive tipping points as emergent properties of systems, which would allow the fast deployment of evolutionary-like transformative solutions to successfully tackle the present socio-climate quandary.

The new research provides a simple procedural synthesis to help identify and coordinate the required agents’ capacities to implement transformative solutions aligned with such climate goal in different contexts.It also shows how to identify the required capacities, conditions and potential policy interventions which could eventually lead to the emergence of positive tipping points in various social–ecological systems to address the 2–1.5 °C policy target.

Original source:

Tabara J D, et al. (2018) Positive tipping points in a rapidly warming world. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability.31:120-129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2018.01.012

High-end climate change at COP23: IMPRESSIONS, HELIX and RISES-AM- held a joint side event

Thu, 30 Nov 2017 15:39:00 +0200

What could the future look like under high-end climate change (above 2^oC global warming)? IMPRESSIONS, alongside its sister-projects HELIX and RISES-AM-, shared insights during a side-event at COP23 held in Bonn, Germany, 6-17 November 2017.

Looking at different aspects of high-end global warming, the three projects presented results including assessments of impacts and the potential for adaptation in a number of sectors, at a range of scales from global to individual cities, including coastal areas. IMPRESSIONS also presented results on different adaptation, mitigation and transformation pathways to achieving resilience and sustainability in the context of high-end warming scenarios.

Key results from the three projects regarding sectors, such as food and water security, biodiversity, human health, coasts and human migration can be freely accessed in the joint policy booklet "High-end Climate Change in Europe", launched earlier this year at ECCA 2017.

While the two other projects have already come to an end, IMPRESSIONS is in its final stages, where other major results are beginning to appear. These will be combined in the forthcoming Information Hub, which will be freely available online.

ECCA 2017: Our Climate Ready Future

Tue, 15 Aug 2017 11:09:00 +0300

Co-organized by EU-funded IMPRESSIONS, HELIX and RISES-AM projects, in collaboration with Adaptation Scotland and Glasgow City Council ECCA 2017, ‘Our Climate Ready Future’, welcomed over 850 people in the City of Glasgow in June 2017.

The vision was that this conference would inspire and enable people to work together to discover and deliver positive climate adaptation solutions that can strengthen society, revitalise local economies and enhance the environment.

"We were delighted to get a great response to our efforts to engage others outside the academic community, and the conference was able to bring together the people who will deliver action on the ground – from business, industry, NGOs, local government and communities – to share knowledge, ideas and experience with leading researchers and policymakers. Glasgow proved to be the ideal venue, at the heart of a city-region that is putting climate adaptation and climate justice at the core of decision making. Delegates were welcomed at the magnificent City Chambers, with a speech by the deputy Lord Provost that set out Glasgow’s strong commitment to tackling both the causes and the effects of climate change." explain the organizers.

See the full overview from the organizers, alongside some kley materials and images here: http://ecca2017.eu/conference/

Policy Booklet: Understanding impacts and adaptation to high-end climate scenarios in Europe

Tue, 06 Jun 2017 19:28:00 +0300

Combining the force of over 150 researchers from leading scientific institutions across Europe, three major EU-funded projects, IMPRESSIONS, HELIX and RISES-AM-, have synthesized research knowledge on impacts and adaptation under high-end climate change for key policy sectors.

While the Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, aims at limiting global warming to well below 2°C, concerns remain that current global greenhouse gas emissions are on track to warm the climate by more than that target. In order to adapt to such high-end climate change and foster actions to avoid it, it is vital that decision-makers have access to reliable scientific information on these uncertain, but potentially high-risk, scenarios of the future.

Funded by the European Union to advance understanding of the consequences of high-end climate change, involving temperature increases above 2°C, IMPRESSIONS, HELIX and RISES-AM-, have assessed climate change impacts, vulnerability and possible adaptation interventions across a range of policy sectors, in order to help decision-makers apply such knowledge within integrated response strategies.

In the newly published policy booklet they describe research findings and understanding emerging on issues related to high-end climate change alongside reflections on the implications for policy and decision-making. For example, high-end climate change could have strong and lasting effects on the agriculture and consequently on food markets and food security across the globe, and also in Europe. For agriculture, as well as forestry, water and nature conservation differential impacts are projected across Europe and trade-offs may occur between them.

Adaptation to high-end climate change, and decisions on actions to avoid it, require robust assessments of the associated risks that go beyond assessing individual impacts of gradual change. As sea level continue to rise, adaptation, including soft engineering and nature-based solutions, will become increasingly important for sustainable coastal management.

Drawing on a very wide range of expertise from many disciplines in both the natural and social sciences, in this booklet the three projects present new understanding of the implications and risks of exceeding 2°C, as well as the challenges and opportunities of adaptation to such a warmer world, and the extent to which risks can be reduced if warming is held as close as possible to 1.5°C. To address these challenges and opportunities, societal transformation and innovative approaches in science and policy may be required.

The booklet features research on impacts and adaptation relevant to a number of areas addressed by policy: food, freshwater, forestry, coastal protection, nature conservation, urban areas, human health and foreign policy. The booklet also considers cross-cutting impacts, challenges and opportunities for transformational change as a response to multiple, interacting risks.

"The policy booklet brings together empirically-grounded science from three large research projects to quantify and explain the consequences of high-end climate change for society at large. The booklet should be particularly useful for decision-makers with responsibility for designing climate change adaptation, mitigation and development strategies by making them fully aware of long-term climate risks, adaptation limits and adaptation/mitigation opportunities" Paula Harrison (IMPRESSIONS Coordinator).

"The policy booklet shows in a single volume the results of three European research projects that illustrate the multiple dimensions of climate change impacts. It also covers new strategies and some innovative solutions for coastal zone adaptation to future scenarios. This can serve to support future climatic assessments that will need to be integrated and incorporate those innovative solutions to increase the sustainability of vulnerable areas such as the coastal zone." Prof. Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla (RISES-AM- Coordinator).

"It's now more important than ever that we get a good picture of high-end climate change above 2 degrees C global warming. What are the impacts and risks? How can we adapt? Is it still avoidable? This report gives a snapshot of current research from three major projects looking at this issue, showing how we are improving our understanding of this crucial global issue." Prof. Richard Betts (HELIX Coordinator).

You can download the booklet from our Media Center.

Rapid and significant sea-level rise expected if global warming exceeds 2 °C, with global variation

Thu, 06 Apr 2017 16:04:00 +0300

The latest issue of Science for Environment Policy, features a study partly conducted under IMPRESSION's sister project RISES-AM, predicting the world could experience the highest ever global sea-level rise in the history of human civilisation if global temperature rises exceed 2 °C.

Under current carbon-emission rates, this temperature rise will occur around the middle of this century, with damaging effects on coastal businesses and ecosystems, while also triggering major human migration from low-lying areas. Global sea-level rise will not be uniform, and will differ for different points of the globe.

Sea-level rise is one of the biggest hazards of climate change. It threatens coastal populations, economic activity in maritime cities and fragile ecosystems. Because sea-level rise is a delayed and complex response to past temperatures, sea levels will continue to climb for centuries into the future, even after concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been stabilised.

Read more about the study and its findings in the original policy brief.

(source: "Science for Environment Policy": European Commission DG Environment News Alert Service, edited by SCU, The University of the West of England, Bristol.)

New EEA Report: Financing urban adaptation to climate change

Fri, 31 Mar 2017 10:09:00 +0300

New EEA report "Financing urban adaptation to climate change," takes a closer look at innovative funding options now being used, such as green bonds and crowdfunding, alongside traditional funding channels. The report includes case studies that analyse how 11 cities across Europe are developing, funding and implementing urban adaptation measures. The case studies outline various projects that will help cities better protect themselves from the damage caused by extreme weather events. These include building more green spaces and installing green roofs, which enhance water retention and provide cooling as well as thermal insulation.

The publication is meant to serve as a resource for adaptation financing providers and project developers from international, national or regional public bodies and private institutions. The report also includes a helpful annex providing an overview of European-level financing options available to municipalities.

Municipalities across Europe increasingly acknowledge the need to adapt to climate change and have begun to adopt various measures. Meeting the costs of adaptation measures for climate change is, however, a major challenge. Municipalities have found innovative ways to overcome that challenge and have started implementing measures. These solutions could be relevant for other cities, towns and smaller municipalities too, and examples are collected and presented in this publication as an inspiration. It offers insights into lessons learned on the ground regarding the most successful approaches, the difficulties encountered and overcome and the key success factors in financing local adaptation action.

IMPRESSIONS 4th General Assembly: the Puzzle Comes Together

Mon, 06 Feb 2017 10:26:00 +0200

The fourth IMPRESSIONS General Assembly took place from 24 to 26 January 2017 at the Central European University (CEU) in Budapest, to mark the start of an exciting period for the large scale FP7 project. Entering the last two years of its lifetime, the project is now starting to reap the fruits of three years spent building and testing its conceptual and modelling frameworks through a strong stakeholder engagement programme.

IMPRESSIONS is addressing knowledge gaps related to the assessment of potential impacts from high-end climate and socio-economic scenarios and the need for transformative solutions for reducing these risks. The project has developed new models and methods for exploring the complex interactions between sectors and regions (both within and outside the EU) under extreme climate and societal changes, as well as fostering synergies between adaptation and mitigation actions.

IMPRESSIONS group photo, CEU, Budapest, Hungary; Credit: Pavel Stoev

With the project entering its final phase of implementation, the IMPRESSIONS team is now moving forward by stress-testing existing adaptation plans, applying models to test the effectiveness of different response options, and elaborating adaptation and mitigation pathways in order to determine sustainable solutions to high-end climate change with stakeholders in each of its case studies.

Some of the project results and recommendations are already compiled in a Policy Booklet, expected to be published and made available for the European Climate Change Adaptation (ECCA) Conference, which this year is co-organized by IMPRESSIONS and will take place from 5 to 9 June 2017.

Additionally, an IMPRESSIONS special issue is now under way and is expected to be published by the end of 2017. All project results will also be made available through a dedicated IMPRESSIONS Information Hub that is under development and will be launched next year.

The meeting in Budapest was also an exciting opportunity for the IMPRESSIONS team to meet their colleagues from the now associated Korean MOTIVE project and exchange know-how and ideas for future work and possible collaborations.

New EEA Report: Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Fri, 27 Jan 2017 12:03:00 +0200

Europe’s regions are facing rising sea levels and more extreme weather, such as more frequent and more intense heatwaves, flooding, droughts and storms due to climate change, according to the latest European Environment Agency report published on 25 Jan 2017. The report assesses the latest trends and projections on climate change and its impacts across Europe and finds that better and more flexible adaptation strategies, policies and measures will be crucial to lessen these impacts.

Find a summary of the report's Key Findings, or download the full report.

Second Iberian Case Study Workshop: Innovative Responses to Climate Change

Thu, 10 Nov 2016 09:47:00 +0200

The Second Iberian Case Study Workshop took place on 29 & 30 September 2016, in Toledo, Spain. The event brought together Spanish and Portuguese stakeholders, representing different sectors (e.g. water, conservation, agro-forestry, education, etc.), from research, public institutions, business and civil society.

In an intense two-day workshop, stakeholders were guided through a highly interactive process, through which they discussed future developments in Spain and Portugal in view of high-end climate change, developed a shared vision for the region, and came up with innovative responses and strategies to tackle some of the most pressing issues.

To kickstart these discussions the IMPRESSIONS team presented some of its work, including modelling results on climate change impacts on water and agro-forestry systems, and presented existing policies in the region (the Common Agricultural Policy and the Water Framework Directive), to receive stakeholder input on how these policies will fare in the future.

Intensive discussions during the Second Iberian Case Study Workshop in Toledo (Credit: S. Haenen)

In 2016, our scientists met stakeholders across all five case studies, with a focus on developing visions for high-end climate change futures. This workshop was the last of this second round of workshop aimed at allowing researchers to measure the project’s work against real-world needs and experiences. Through this workshops IMPRESSIONS paved the way towards developing the multi-scale climate change scenario backbone of the project, which will be tested and discussed next year at the third round of stakeholder meetings.

The Bond You Hold from Diego Galafassi on Vimeo. Credits:

A physical theatre performance overlaid with pattern projections and music embodying the dynamic relation between climate and humans, in a world beyond 2oC warming.
Directed by Diego Galafassi and Maria Heras.
Performance and choreography Maria Magdalona Beky Winnerstram and Erin Fowler. Music composed by Katherine Young, USA
Scientific direction David Tàbara and Kasper Kok
Make-up Flora Velloso (floravelloso.com)
Light design Ronald Hessman

Art projections from Tone Bjordam and Marten Scheffer’s collaboration "Critical Transitions". For more information see this website: tonebjordam.com
Additional camera Nick Graalman. Additional projections Diego Galafassi, Felix Pharand-Deschenes in "Climate Change – The State of The Science" (IGBP and Globaia production).
Additional music Marten Scheffer and Arnin Scheidel

Special Session on Climate Change at the EAEPE 2016 Sponsored by IMPRESSIONS

Tue, 08 Nov 2016 09:52:00 +0200

Having recently moved up on climate policy agenda, the relationship between climate policy risk and macroeconomic and financial stability still remains in the shadow of uncertainty on the role of alternative green fiscal and targeted monetary policies and their systemic implications on financial markets.

This issue was brought up at the 2016 Conference of the European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy, as a part as a dedicated session on climate change co-organized and co-funded by IMPRESSIONS in collaboration with Boston University and the University of Sussex.

The 28th Annual EAEPE Conference took place from 3 to 5 November 2016 in Manchester, UK with this year’s topic being "Industrialisation, Socio-economic Transformation and Institutions". Bringing climate change into the agenda IMPRESSIONS contributed to bring together leading economists and climate experts with the goal to understand complexity and uncertainty in coupled human-natural systems.

The special session aimed to disclose limits of sector based and integrated assessment models for modelling the dynamics of a complex system, such as the green economy. And discuss complementary approaches based on evolutionary economics approaches, linked to complexity science and based on System Dynamics, Agent Based Models and Network Analysis, as possible solutions to fill this modelling gap and contribute to understanding and action.

In so doing, the session shed light on the sources of uncertainty that characterise the relationship between climate policies and macroeconomic and financial stability, in order to contribute improving sustainability models to timely inform the climate policy process.

Introducing the Transnational Climate Impacts Index: Indicators of country-level exposure – methodology report

Mon, 07 Nov 2016 17:09:00 +0200

A new paper, provided by IMPRESSIONS partner, the Stockholm Environmental Institue (SEI), presents a framework for analysing countries’ exposure to transnational climate impacts – which occur in one country as a result of climate change in another place. It presents nine indicators, as well as a composite index.

Climate change mitigation is widely regarded as a global problem, but climate change impacts and adaptation are typically described as regional or local issues. This reflects the location-specific nature of physical impacts, but it fails to recognize the many interconnections among countries and regions, particularly in an increasingly globalized economy.

This paper introduces a new framework for examining climate change impacts and adaptation needs from an international perspective. Based on this framework, the authors develop indicators of country-level exposure to what they call the transnational impacts of climate change: those that occur in one place as a consequence of climate impacts somewhere else. The indicators make it possible to quantify each country’s exposure across multiple dimensions. The authors also construct a composite index: the Transnational Climate Impacts Index.

The paper explains the rationale and methodology by which indicators were selected, and invites feedback and suggestions from readers on how to further develop this research. There are significant opportunities to strengthen and deepen the quantitative assessment of exposure to transnational climate impacts, including via applications of the framework at the national rather than global level.

Download the working paper.

ECCA 2017: Abstract Submission is Open!

Tue, 09 Aug 2016 16:11:00 +0300

Scheduled to take place from 5 to 9 June 2017, the 3rd European Climate Change Adaptation Conference has now opened its call for abstracts. The theme for ECCA 2017 is ‘Our Climate Ready Future’. The conference aims to inspire and enable people to work together to discover and deliver positive climate adaptation solutions that can strengthen society, revitalise local economies and enhance the environment.

The call is open for both session and abstract submissions. Three types of sessions will be organised: Practice, Science-practice, and Science. All session and abstract submissions should link to one of the conference themes.

Abstracts from practitioners and scientists that show real-world examples of climate adaptation are welcome. Case study abstracts showing how their experience can be useful to others, e.g. through identifying lessons learned, providing recommendations on best practice and considering whether the approach could be transferred to other regions or different contexts, are welcome.

More information on the conference website.

You can also download the flyer here.

Watch the video report from the second Hungarian Case Study workshop

Mon, 08 Aug 2016 16:20:00 +0300

The Second Hungarian case study workshop took place from 28-29 June 2016 in Veszprém, Hungary. The event brought together about 50 stakeholders and researchers to discuss what could be the possible solutions for Hungary by 2100 in the event of extreme climate change (above 2°C).

Watch the video reoprt:

Videographer: Dénes Fellegi (http://www.fellegicreation.com/)

Find all IMPRESSIONS videos on our YouTube Channel.

Visions for Hungary: Second Hungarian Case Study Workshop

Thu, 07 Jul 2016 17:06:00 +0300

Planned series of three workshops for each case study are at the beating heart of IMPRESSIONS research efforts. These events allow researchers to meet stakeholders from across policy and practice and measure the project’s work against real-world needs and experiences.

With the advice collected from the first Hungarian case study workshop in 2015, and with fresh ideas and results collected over the last year, the IMPRESSIONS team met up with Hungarian stakeholders for the second time to discuss different socio-economic scenarios and a positive vision for the region.

The Second Hungarian case study workshop took place from 28-29 June 2016 in Veszprém, Hungary. The event brought together about 50 stakeholders and researchers with the aim to develop possible adaptation and mitigation solutions for Hungary by 2100 in the event of extreme climate change (above 2°C ).

Group photo - worskhop participants; Credit: Gellért Gombai

Various aspects of climate change impacts were discussed in several main categories, including: human health, agricultural and urban land use, and water.

Taking back results from the discussions, IMPRESSIONS researchers will now model the possible pathways from now until 2100 that will ensure sustainability of the jointly developed positive vision.

Scenario visuals; Credit: BEE Environmental Communication

Building resilient cities key to tackling effects of climate change

Tue, 05 Jul 2016 10:11:00 +0300

A new EEA report ‘Urban adaptation to climate change in Europe 2016 – transforming cities in a changing climate’ provides an in-depth overview of actions that urban planners and policymakers can take to help lessen the impact of climate change. The report outlines the changes and socio-economic challenges cities face due to climate change, and the possible consequences.

It analyses the approaches cities can take to adaptation and explains that short-term coping or incremental adaptation measures alone will not be enough to mitigate the threats.

The report targets local, regional, national and European governments and organisations as well as experts and researchers concerned with urban adaptation. It complements other Agency products such as the EEA report 2/2012: Urban adaptation to Climate change in Europe – Challenges and Opportunities and the interactive map book on urban vulnerability to climate change.

The EEA’s task is to provide knowledge for this process at different levels. The Agency provides assessment reports and maintains the European Climate Adaptation Platform Climate-ADAPT and facilitates information exchange among stakeholders, such as co-organising the annual Open European Day Resilient Cities.

Second Central Asia Workshop: High-end Climate Change & Challenges for the Region

Fri, 10 Jun 2016 14:27:00 +0300

From 23 to 24 May 2016, the IMPRESSIONS project hosted its second Central Asia case study in Baku, Azerbaijan. In a conference room overlooking the Caspian Sea, with Central Asia at the opposite end, 26 participants from Central Asia, Russia, China, Europe and beyond, discussed with the IMPRESSIONS team current and future challenges for the Central Asia region, against the backdrop of high-end climate change.

Central Asia is deeply affected by current climate variability. Future climate change is likely to bring significant risks to people, infrastructure and natural resources in the region, but the extent of future impacts depends on the quantity and quality of development in the region over the coming decades. The same climate impact – for example a prolonged drought – will have very different consequences depending on the social, political, economic and cultural features of the society that is impacted. That is one reason why it is especially important to consider the impacts of future climate change across a range of socio-economic scenarios.

Following the first workshop in Kazakhstan in 2015, four regional socio-economic scenarios were developed that explore four distinct worlds in Central Asia until 2100. In Baku, these four scenarios, representing a plausible realm of possibilities for the future, were used as a basis for this strategy exercise in an intense two-day workshop: through an interactive process, the discussions focused on exploring the impacts of high-end climate change in Central Asia and its spillover effects in Russia and China; and comparing the respective strategic approaches for and towards the region, forming sets of strategies. In order to enable an integrated perspective on these issues, the attending stakeholders and experts represented civil society, businesses, research and international organisations, with expertise in various sectors such as water, energy, agriculture and security.

In the coming months, the IMPRESSIONS team will be compiling and analyzing the rich inputs received from the participants, in preparation for the third and final Central Asia case study workshop in 2017.

Inside IMPRESSIONS: WP2, integrated multi-scale scenarios and case studies

Tue, 07 Jun 2016 11:20:00 +0300

Inside IMPRESSIONS is taking a journey to explain what's behind the project's structure. In the following months you can learn more about each work package and the research involved in it straight from our top scientists and work package leaders.

After WP1's video last month, in this new episode Dr Jens Christensen, Danish Meteorological Institute and Dr Kasper Kok, Wageningen University, talk about the work within WP2, integrated multi-scale scenarios and IMPRESSIONS case studies.

One step closer to the IMPRESSIONS Information Hub

Mon, 06 Jun 2016 09:19:00 +0300

A first draft design of the Information Hub together with a summary of the next steps has been finalized as an important milestone towards one of IMPRESSIONS’s major outputs.

The IMPRESSIONS Information Hub will synthesise the results of the project and aims to become both a reflective and engaging open tool to steer further debate on how to confront high-end scenarios in Europe and beyond.

The Hub is planned as an easy-to-use tool for practitioners aiming to gain practical insights on the results of the projects using, for example, maps, policy briefs, narratives, videos and infographics. It will also provide guidance for practitioners and other researchers to follow the steps taken within the IMPRESSIONS project, such as participatory scenario development, visioning, pathway development, and assessment of risks and opportunities in the context of high-end scenarios.

Over the coming months the design of the Hub will evolve based on discussions within the project and with stakeholders in upcoming workshops. This will proceed together with the development of the content of the Hub.

We need the full picture to plan for climate change impacts: New IMPRESSIONS research paper

Thu, 26 May 2016 11:08:00 +0300

How can society plan for the future if we only look at individual issues in isolation? Climate change impact studies typically focus on a single sector such as agriculture, forestry or water, ignoring the implications of how different sectors interact. A new study, published in Nature Climate Change, suggests that an integrated, cross-sectoral approach to climate change assessment is needed to provide a more complete picture of impacts that enables better informed decisions about climate adaptation.

The importance of a cross-sectoral approach as a prerequisite for any type of comprehensive climate impact assessment is not a new notion. Already stressed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is surprising that until now no published research has assessed the differences between impacts simulated by single sector and integrated models.

As a part of the FP7-funded EU project IMPRESSIONS* which aims to assess the implications of high-end climate change (+2 degrees and above), the new paper aims to demonstrate the benefits of using multi-sectoral modelling approaches.

"To address the current knowledge gap, in our paper we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. The results show that single sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems", explains Dr. Paula Harrison, Center for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH), UK.

Full press release.

The original research article is available here.

IMPRESSIONS stakeholders workshop: developing visions for Scotland

Thu, 26 May 2016 10:00:00 +0300

Miriam Dunn, University of Edinburgh and IMPRESSIONS Scottish case study leader, gives an update on the recent IMPRESSIONS second workshop for the Scottish case study, held at the Stirling Court Hotel in spring 2016. The purpose of this workshop was to further develop the stakeholders’ vision for Scotland in 2100; to explore how different policy measures might help or hinder to achieve that vision under the different socio-economic scenarios developed in the first workshop; and to explore the updated information about climate change impacts for different sectors.

On the 11^th and 12^th April, 20 stakeholders from a wide range of organisations with an interest in land resource management in Scotland participated in a two-day workshop with researchers as part of IMPRESSIONS. The workshop was the second of three workshops for the case study and included a majority of stakeholders who were also participants in the first workshop. The days featured facilitated breakout sessions during which the stakeholders explored updated information about the projected climate change impacts for different sectors in Scotland and, considered these alongside four different socio-economic scenarios. The stakeholders also looked at how different climate change adaptation policy measures might fare within the scenarios, and discussed what could be done to help achieve their vision for Scotland in 2100.

Feedback from the workshop was overwhelmingly positive, with stakeholders commenting that they had found it to be useful, inspiring and thought-provoking. And as always, the researchers involved welcomed the opportunity to work with such a diverse, knowledgeable and engaged group of stakeholders.

Video credit: Archie Crofton

IMPRESSIONS

The IMPRESSIONS (IMPacts and Risks from high-End Scenarios – Strategies for InnOvative solutioNS) project aims to increase our understanding of the consequences of high-end climate change, and in so doing to support adaptation strategies of stakeholders. It is a major EU-funded project that includes Scotland as a case study. It has built upon the scenarios developed by the CLIMSAVE project, but this time focuses on decision-makers’ strategies for dealing with the impacts of high-end (>2°C) climate change in Scotland. The project brings together researchers as well as stakeholders from both policy and practice and from varied sectors across Scotland.

Stakeholders are an integral part of the IMPRESSIONS (IMPacts and Risks from high-End Scenarios– Strategies for InnOvative solutioNS) project and their continuing enthusiastic involvement makes the project successful.

Next Steps

The outcomes of the workshop are being used to feed back into the project over the next 2 years to identify adaptation and mitigation pathways (and policies) to address climate change impacts; to develop action plans and empowering narratives; and most importantly, to support adaptation strategies of stakeholders within the land resource management sectors in Scotland. A key goal is to create better contextualised and more usable information about adapting to climate change. If you are interested in being involved in the next workshop, please feel free to get in touch.

Further information about the project can be accessed on the website or by contacting Miriam Dunn (miriam.dunn@ed.ac.uk).

Call for book or chapter proposals: Climate Change Communication

Mon, 04 Apr 2016 11:54:00 +0300

Vernon Press is opening a call for book or chapter proposals on Climate Change Communication. The publisher invites proposals from across the social sciences for contributions to climate change communication. See the official call here.

In order to tackle the climate change challenge on time, communication research is exploring the core of public awareness engagement. The once simplistic models of communication construed as a one-way process (from messenger to a passive audience) are evolving. Decades of environmental activism and communication have contributed to a more sophisticated understanding of communication processes which takes into account underlying factors at the basis of individual/communal decisions and actions, such as experiences, mental or cultural models and relational dynamics.

Particular interest is expressed in submissions that explore the driving factors for change on the dynamic and complex system of individuals/communities, their role as forces to take decisions/actions towards sustainability and their potential as tools to design climate change communication strategies.

The ambition is to create a book series that reflects current dynamism in the interdisciplinary study of climate change communication. The series aspires to contribute to the establishment of new models of communication filling the gap between the perception of climate change as an external problem and our role as change agents. The publisher seeks proposals addressing, among others, the following issues:

psychology of climate change communication
engagement of audiences in climate issues and solutions (messengers, messages, media…)
vulnerability of communities (or resilience) to impacts
the perception and understanding of the problem of climate change
current state and underlying drivers of public beliefs and attitudes about climate change
understanding of target audiences
invisible connections: from motivations to actions
basis for systemic changes

Deadline for proposals: 30th June 2016

For further questions, you can write to: carolina.sanchez@vernonpress.com

About the publisher

Vernon Press is an independent publisher of scholarly books in the social sciences and humanities. Our mission is to serve the community of academic and professional scholars by providing a visible, quality platform for the dissemination of emergent ideas. We work closely with authors, academic associations, distributors and library information specialists to identify and develop high quality, high impact titles.

Next steps for Europe after the Paris agreement

Wed, 23 Mar 2016 15:18:00 +0200

In the beginning of March, the European Commission presented an assessment of the implications for the European Union of the new global climate agreement adopted in Paris in December 2015. The assessment looks at the next steps in the process and how the Paris Agreement will be implemented in the EU. The assessment is accompanied by a proposal for the European Union to sign the Paris Agreement.

The immediate next step is the signature of the Paris Agreement. The Agreement will open for signatures on 22 April 2016 in New York, and enter into force when at least 55 Parties representing at least 55% of global emissions have ratified. Moving forward, the EU will need to be prepared to participate fully in the international processes foreseen under the Paris Agreement, including the periodic "global stocktakes" designed to progressively review ambition levels and progress made. The EU will also need to continue to deliver its fair share on climate finance.

During the next 12 months, the Commission will present the key remaining legislative proposals to implement the 2030 climate and energy framework. This includes proposals for an Effort-Sharing Decision for sectors not covered by the EU emissions trading system and on land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) as well as legislation to set up a reliable and transparent governance mechanism for the post-2020 period. The Commission will also present the necessary policy proposals to adapt the EU's regulatory framework in order to put energy efficiency first and to foster EU's role as a world leader in the field of renewable energy.

Read the full story on the DG Climate action website.

Inside IMPRESSIONS: Explaining the project in video

Wed, 23 Mar 2016 11:07:00 +0200

In this first episode Tiago Capela Lourenço and Maria João Cruz from the Lisbon University, alongside Henrik Carlsen and Adiz Dzebo, Stokholm Environmental Institute, explain the work done in WP 1 - Innovative and effective decision-making under uncertainty.

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel to get the latest project videos and learn more about the research behind IMPRESSIONS.

European Case Study: Responding to high-end climate change in Europe

Mon, 29 Feb 2016 10:21:00 +0200

Trends in current greenhouse gas emissions suggest that meeting the COP21 Paris Agreement to hold increases in the global average temperature to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels will be extremely difficult. Furthermore, the societal implications of the mitigation effort required to achieve 1.5oC will be large, potentially leading to massive high-end socio-economic change which could outweigh many effects of climate change. The IMPRESSIONS project is advancing understanding of the implications of different combinations of high-end climate and socio-economic change. Recently, stakeholders from across Europe met to discuss strategies for adaptation and mitigation under uncertain high-end futures.

Discussions during the European Case Study; Credit: S. Haenen

Experts from across policy and practise were brought together with the IMPRESSIONS scientists to discuss (i) the types of changes in social and economic conditions we may face in Europe, in combination with climate changes, in the future; (ii) how such changes may affect Europe in a multitude of aspects including agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, tourism, health, water supply and more; and (iii) how current policies might perform under such conditions.

These discussions triggered the identification of possible responses to avoid the risks posed by, and to take advantage of the opportunities arising from, these different climate and socio-economic futures. The responses were grouped into similar types of actions and developed into strategies for adapting to the projected changes.

A very wide variety of different responses and strategies were generated by the stakeholders within the workshop. These will be further analysed by the project team to create adaptation and mitigation pathways. Synergies between the different strategies will be identified and elements of the pathways will be modelled to assess their ability to move society towards a more desirable future. These results will be presented to the stakeholders at a third workshop in February 2017 to further refine policy and practice recommendations for dealing with high-end climate and socio-economic change.

Third General Assembly: Activating IMPRESSIONS full potential

Fri, 29 Jan 2016 14:23:00 +0200

Every year, IMPRESSIONS partners get together to discuss their progress and future steps towards achieving the project’s long-term goals. This year the IMPRESSIONS General Assembly took place in Florence, Italy, on 19-21 January 2016 to mark the start of a rather active period ahead.

Group photo from the 3rd General Assembly meeting; Credit: Pensoft

IMPRESSIONS has just entered into its third year and with the research activities now taking shape and picking up speed, there are many exciting results and events to come. A second set of case-study-based stakeholder workshops, following the success of the first round, are planned throughout the year to co-develop adaptation and mitigation actions for tackling the impacts and vulnerabilities highlighted by our scenario and modelling work. This ensures that IMPRESSIONS results take account of complex real-life situations and the specific decision-making context for each case study.

Meanwhile, many other activities continue at full speed such as the analysis of the user needs survey and the initial scenario and modelling results. Methods and processes are also under development to ensure integration of the project results both across topics and case study scales, and their representation in user-friendly formats within the IMPRESSIONS Information Hub.

Having entered its third year the project is now planning several publications, including a policy booklet on high-end climate change and a Journal Special Issue covering the wide range of topics covered in IMPRESSIONS (decision-making under uncertainty; stakeholder engagement; climate and socio-economic scenarios; climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability modelling; indirect effects; economic implications; and transformative solutions).

In addition, together with our sister projects HELIX and RISES-AM, IMPRESSIONS is in charge of organizing the 3rd European Climate Change Adaptation (ECCA) conference that will take place on 6-8 June 2017 in Glasgow, UK.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year from IMPRESSIONS!

Thu, 31 Dec 2015 18:21:00 +0200

IMPRESSIONS wishes everyone health, joy and success for the New Year!

COP21: Reaching a historic international climate agreement in Paris

Tue, 15 Dec 2015 04:59:00 +0200

A great deal has happened since world leaders gave their opening statements during the first day of the UN Climate Change Conference 2015, COP21 climate change talks. In the space between 30 Nov and 11 Dec 2015, the world witnessed heated talks and passionate pleas culminating into a historic international climate agreement signed in Paris on Saturday 12 Dec 2015.

The agreement recognises the potential threat of extreme climate change (above 2 degrees Celsius) and is designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit the average rise in global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times.

Credit: UN Climate Change Conference 2015

The Paris Agreement and the outcomes of COP21 cover all the crucial areas identified as essential for a landmark conclusion: mitigation – reducing emissions fast enough to achieve the temperature goal; a transparency system and global stock-take – accounting for climate action; adaptation – strengthening ability of countries to deal with climate impacts; loss and damage – strengthening ability to recover from climate impacts; and support – including finance, for nations to build clean, resilient futures.

"History will remember this day… The Paris agreement on climate change is a monumental success for the planet and its people." said UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

IMPRESSIONS at the event

A number of side events were also included in the COP21 programme among which the Rio Conventions Pavilion (RCP) organized by the Secretariats of the Rio Conventions and the Global Environment Facility.

Each day at the RCP organizations provided a focus on a different theme relevant to climate change, sustainable land management and biodiversity in the context of sustainable development. IMPRESSIONS partner Dr. Mark Rounsevell took part in the RIO pavilion session on 10 December focused on "Synergies and trade-offs in land-based climate mitigation and biodiversity."

There is not enough land in the world to feed everyone what is considered a normal USA diet. Prof M. Rounsevell pic.twitter.com/4YXfF8GOG9
— Rio Pavilion (@RioPavilion) December 10, 2015

Other themes included: exploring land’s role in mitigating climate change; the role of biodiversity in combating climate change; recognising the successes of indigenous peoples and local communities’ initiatives in building climate resilience; the impact of climate change on our oceans; the role of business in addressing climate change; the potential of forests in climate change mitigation; climate-informed development; the benefits of gender-sensitive approaches in adaptation and mitigation efforts.

IMPRESSIONS 3rd Modellers Meeting

Sat, 12 Dec 2015 11:17:00 +0200

The 3rd IMPRESSIONS Modellers Meeting took place on 2 & 3 December 2015 in Copenhagen, Denmark. The meeting brought together the IMPRESSIONS modelling team to discuss future model development and application to the high-end climate change scenarios.

Discussions during the 3rd modellers meeting; Credit: George Cojocaru

The purpose of the meeting was to discuss progress in modelling activities within the five IMPRESSIONS case studies (global, European, Hungary, Iberia and Scotland). A variety of different types of models are being utilised in the case studies, including top-down approaches such as global and regional integrated assessment models, and process-based models, and bottom-up approaches such as agent-based models and mixed qualitative-quantitative participatory approaches. All the modelling work has a strong focus on improving the representation of cross-sectoral interactions and the representation of the adaptation process by taking account of constraints, triggers, time lags and consequences.

The meeting consisted of various plenary session to discuss common themes such as the application of the models to the climate (RCP) and socio-economic (SSP) scenarios, and breakout groups to discuss (i) future workplans for modelling coping/adaptive capacity, vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation within each case study; and (ii) which model indicators to show at the second set of stakeholder workshops that will take place during 2016.

New EEA Report: Overview of reported national policies and measures on climate change mitigation in Europe in 2015

Thu, 03 Dec 2015 16:03:00 +0200

A new technical report published today by the European Environmental Agency (EEA) presents a synthesis of the information on climate change mitigation policies and measures (PaMs) reported in 2015 by Member States under the European UnionMonitoring Mechanism Regulation. The report aims to provide an overview of the main characteristics of the PaMs implemented, adopted or planned by Member States, such as their objective, type, targeted sectors, entities responsible for their implementation, etc.

The report is based on the submissions, by 25 June 2015, of 20 Member States. These reports were subject to quality control (QC) by the European Topic Centre for Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation (ETC/ACM). Nineteen Member States subsequently revised and resubmitted their reports. For the eight Member States that did not submit a report on their climate PaMs before 25 June 2015 or that did not use the online questionnaire, the most recent submissions on PaMs before 2015 (i.e. from 2013 or 2014) were used.

Find the report available to download here.

Nature can help reduce the impacts of climate change

Fri, 27 Nov 2015 17:48:00 +0200

Building and managing a well-planned network of natural areas might provide an effective and, in many cases, cheaper solution for coping with natural disasters such as floods or landslides, the European Environmental Agency (EEA) reports.

A new report published on 25/11/2015 by the EEA explores how ‘green infrastructure’ can help Europe prepare for and reduce the loss from weather- and climate-related hazards.

Weather- and climate-related hazards, including extreme precipitation, floods, wet mass movement (e.g. avalanches and landslides) and storm surges are among the costliest and deadliest natural hazards in Europe and globally. The EEA’s new report ‘Exploring nature-based solutions: the role of green infrastructure in mitigating the impacts of weather- and climate change-related natural hazards’ focuses on certain types of extreme events and hazards in Europe that are likely to be amplified by ongoing climate change.

The Horizon Magazine: World on track for catastrophic warming – forecasters

Fri, 27 Nov 2015 17:26:00 +0200

A recent article in the Horizon Magazine raises concerns about forecasts suggesting the possibility of catastropihic climate warming. The level of greenhouse gas emissions being produced around the world means that, as things stand, temperatures are likely to rise by around 4.5 degrees by 2100, unless significant reductions are agreed, sophisticated climate simulations show.

‘Emissions at the moment track closely the worst scenarios used for estimating future climate change,’ said Professor Colin Jones from the University of Leeds, who is based at the Met Office, UK. ‘If we look at actual emissions over the past 15 years and just plot them as a line, they generally follow the worst-case scenario… in our modelling studies.’

‘Those estimates, plus or minus 10 % to 20 %, I would be very confident in,’ said Prof. Jones, coordinator of the CRESCENDO project, which is working to better understand how climate change will affect the way that the oceans and vegetation absorb CO2 from the atmosphere by the end of the century.It means that, unless emissions are seriously curbed, we’re in line for a global mean temperature increase of around 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100, compared with average temperatures from the pre-industrial era.

Even in the next five years, temperatures are likely to be between 0.18 and 0.46 degrees Celsius higher than the average from 1981 to 2010, and it’s going to make a noticeable difference around areas such as the Mediterranean.

‘In 10 years’ time, it will be even worse than it is now, so that’s the kind of problem we are addressing, (that’s) the urgency of climate change,’ said Professor Francisco Doblas-Reyes from the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, Spain.

Read the full artilcle here.

Growing Challenge of Climate Change: A Report

Wed, 25 Nov 2015 09:32:00 +0200

A new UK National Trust report ‘Forecast Changeable’ illustrates new ways to manage properties has had to be explored in the face of a changing climate. Some have become damaged by rainwater and flooding and gardens are increasingly affected by drought and disease.

The effects of these changes are not confined to one region; they are in evidence across the UK. For example, at Nymans in West Sussex, drought issues meant water storage capacity had to be doubled to 80,000 litres. Increased demand necessitated that this be raised to 150,000 litres

The Plant Conservation Centre, which is responsible for grafting and propagating important collections for our gardens, has become a victim of warmer winters. The period of time available for grafting has been cut in half, making the procedure only possible in the cooler periods from January to March. A second facility was opened to accommodate the climatic change.

The Horizon Magazine: Regional rivalry and climate migration possible ‘within our lifetimes’

Mon, 23 Nov 2015 09:34:00 +0200

Droughts, floods, changing agriculture and rising sea levels. The list of climate change impacts goes on, the new issue of the Horizon Magazine is out and it is warning us that regional rivalry and climate migration is possible ‘within our lifetimes’.

‘We have developed scenario narratives for the different futures for Europe which combine plausible changes in socio-economic conditions with projections of changes in climate,’ said Dr Paula Harrison, from the University of Oxford, UK, and project leader of IMPRESSIONS, an EU-funded research project which is looking at the impacts of high-end climate change.

‘In the worst-case scenario … many countries could struggle to maintain living standards and end up with extremely high levels of inequality,’ said Dr Harrison. ‘This is a real doom and gloom scenario where there is antagonism between regions and a disintegration of social fabric.’ Climate change will affect water resources, agriculture, biodiversity and the global flow of goods and services. Couple this with a growing population, and there could be significant impacts upon Europe’s economy and society.

Without significant action, certain regions may also become particularly vulnerable to other social factors, such as the mass movement of people. Normally, migration is driven by famine, economy and war, but droughts, heatwaves and food shortages could cause numbers to increase.

As pressure mounts on resources, migration could also result in other socio-economic ripple effects, such as countries closing their borders, which isn’t too hard to imagine in light of Europe’s current refugee challenge.

‘Climate change could make migration stressors worse, depending upon the socio-economic context that evolves,’ said Dr Harrison.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom. The project believes there is another possible scenario where societies make a big effort to meet sustainable development goals, limiting the impact of climate change.

The goal of the project is to be able to present these scenarios to policymakers in order to give them a better understanding of the implications of global of the implications of global warming.

Read the full article here.

Warming set to breach 1C threshold

Wed, 11 Nov 2015 12:38:00 +0200

In a recent article the BBC reports that global temperatures are set to rise more than one degree above pre-industrial levels according to the UK's Met Office. Figures from January to September this year are already 1.02C above the average between 1850 and 1900.

If temperatures remain as predicted, 2015 will be the first year to breach this key threshold. The world would then be half way towards 2C, the gateway to dangerous warming.

The new data is certain to add urgency to political negotiations in Paris later this month aimed at securing a new global climate treaty.

For researchers, confusion about the true level of temperatures in the 1750s, when the industrial revolution began and fossil fuels became widely used, means that an accurate assessment of the amount the world has warmed since then is very difficult.

Read the full article on the BBC website.

Signposts for future transformative research at the International Sustainability Transitions Conference 2015

Tue, 20 Oct 2015 16:20:00 +0300

International scientific conferences that bring together scholars on the same field to share and deepen dialogues and exchanges can be overwhelming and intense. With this Conference Brief, the DRIFT research team offers reflections and messages to take on board for the future steps in research from the International Sustainability Transitions Conference held in Brighton, 25-28 August 2015.

It is the IST conference again! The annual reunion with transition scholars from all around the world to discuss, debate, share and plan for what makes, what it takes and whatwe know about wider transformative change. Here is a short account from the DRIFT Team:

Session Picture: Role of civil society in sustainability transitions.

As DRIFT team, we enter the academic debate from different angles and with a great diversity of conceptual lenses and empirical insights. With the keynotes speeches aiming to inspire discussions and bringing new perspectives to ongoing debates on the wider transformative changes and the way research interacts with them, we came to a diversity of reflections and messages to take home.

As DRIFT research team, we stand critical and sceptical to entrenched and unquestioned territories - be them theoretical or empirical - and with a strong transdisciplinary focus on our research, the messages to take home may signpost possible future research pathways. From our reflections and critical summary notes, we gather six key messages:

Message 1: Towards Theoretical Plurality! As sustainability transitions scholars we already benefit from new theoretical frameworks that go beyond the multi-level perspective, and consider dynamics, agency and politics as starting points.
Message 2: Look out for stalemates! While the whole field is searching for fast-pacing dynamics of transformative change, it may be also worth investigating what is not transitioning.
Message 3: Show me the innovation! With a focus on fitting or disruptive innovations for sustainability transitions, the new focus areas should be on the transformative impact rather than the outreach innovations achieve.
Message 4: Transitions and the City! Cities as empirical grounds to go beyond sectoral transitions and look closer at cross-‐sectoral and scale dynamics.
Message 5: Experimenting as the means to instigate sustainability transitions!
Message 6: Check your tools! Methodological issues, methods, concepts and frameworks and how they come together in sustainability transitions’ research was a core topic of discussion during the small group sessions of the research agenda. Co-creation as a mode of engagement and operation!

Read a more detiled outline on the key messages in the DRIFT Conference Brief.

New Updates: Reporting back: First IMPRESSIONS Hungarian Case Study Workshop

Sun, 18 Oct 2015 10:59:00 +0300

The first IMPRESSIONS Hungarian Case Study workshop took place on 13 &14 July 2015, in Szekszárd, Hungary. Joined by over 25 participants representing public institutions, civil society and the private sector from Szekszárd and Veszprém, we discussed socio-economic driving forces and developed locally meaningful scenarios to the two case areas. The workshop was very well received by participants and was covered in local and national media. We will continue engaging stakeholders by providing updates, requesting inputs to modeling and by asking for their help with data in the upcoming months so that they stay involved until the second workshop in June 2016. Learn more about the workshop and IMPRESSIONS in the following video report:

Videographer: Dénes Fellegi, BEE Environmental Communication (www.bee.co.hu)

Besides stakeholder engagement, work on several thematic models was also continued. Together with the Hungarian Central Statistical Office, we conducted a large-scale survey involving 220 landowners and 21 agricultural enterprises from both Veszprém and Szekszárd with the aim:

to identify factors influencing individual agricultural managers’ decision-making on land use and management;
to advance understanding of the implications of recent and future climate change in the agricultural sector;
to assess the prevalence of tick-borne diseases among farm workers.

Results of the survey will help us estimate whether changes in individual agricultural managers’ decision-making could foster sustainability of local food production. The results will also contribute to our thematic models, and will help decision-makers take them into account when setting up adaptation-related policies for the sector.

IMPRESSIONS was represented at the Annual Meeting of the Hungarian Society of Hygienists in Eger, Hungary, on 6-8 October 2015, where one of our workshop participants and project partners, Teca Zoltánné Gaál from Szekszárd gave a presentation on the IMPRESSIONS project to a scientific audience.

IMPRESSIONS Scotland – Workshop 1 (mini workshop)

Mon, 12 Oct 2015 14:18:00 +0300

Stakeholders are an integral part of the IMPRESSIONS project and continue to contribute positively to the research in the project. On the 22^nd September, 17 stakeholders from a wide range of organisations with an interest in land resource management in Scotland participated in a one day workshop with IMPRESSIONS researchers.

The workshop was a great success and provided an opportunity for stakeholders and researchers to co-create knowledge. The day featured facilitated breakout sessions during which stakeholders reviewed and further developed plausible socio-economic storylines of what the future might look like for Scotland.

Video credit: Archie Crofton

This involved linking the CLIMSAVE Scottish scenarios to the new IPCC-related global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) and downscaled European SSPs developed within IMPRESSIONS. These will be combined with intermediate and high-end climate change scenarios and used to explore potential impacts for Scotland.

Stakeholders also contributed their visions for Scotland in the year 2100 – that is, what they would, in an ideal world, like the country to be like by that point. Discussions were lively and more often than not reached consensus!

The IMPRESSIONS team looks forward to working further with these and other stakeholders during the course of the project to develop adaptation and mitigation pathways for reaching this vision for Scotland. For a video wrap-up of the workshop and more, please visit our YouTube Channel.

Science-Policy Lunchtime Debate on High-end Climate Change: Impacts and Vulnerabilities

Mon, 12 Oct 2015 10:40:00 +0300

IMPRESSIONS participated in a science-policy event hosted by DG RTD and DG CLIMA on 17 September 2015 at Scotland House Conference Centre in Brussels. The event focused on evidence of what might happen if the international agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions and limit the expected global warming to 2° is not meet.

The mid-term findings from three projects (IMPRESSIONS, HELIX and RISES-AM) funded under the Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development (FP7) to quantify impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of high-end scenarios were presented. DG RTD Head of Unit 'Climate Action and Earth Observation' Andrea Tilche and DG CLIMA Head of Unit 'Adaptation' Beatriz Yordi then framed a discussion in relation to:

What are plausible worlds above 2°C global warming, both at the global scale and in Europe?
What can be appropriate responses from both the mitigation and the adaptation side?
How do decision-makers perceive high-end scenarios in specific places and for specific sectors?
How do solutions to high-end climate link with sustainable development and to a number of transformative changes outside of the climate domain.

The event was well attended by over 60 people ensuring an active and interesting debate on the risks arising from exceeding the 2oC policy "guardrail" as well as the economic, social and political opportunities for Europe by responding to climate change through adaptation and/or mitigation.

United Nations Sustainable Development Summit 2015: Adopting New Goals for the Future

Fri, 02 Oct 2015 18:53:00 +0300

On September 25th a set of global goals to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure prosperity for all were adopted together with a new sustainable development agenda, during the United Nations summit, held from 25 to 27 September 2015, in New York.

More detail about the UN SDGs is available here. This image is copyright of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Permission for re-use is granted by the UN.

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals and 169 targets demonstrate the scale and ambition of the new universal Agenda. They seek to build on the Millennium Development Goals and complete what these did not achieve. They seek to realize the human rights of all and to achieve gender equality and the empowerment of all women and girls. They are integrated and indivisible and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development: the economic, social and environmental.

Goal 13 "Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts" specifically targets climate change, including the following targets:

Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries
Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning
Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning
Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fund through its capitalization as soon as possible
Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing States, including focusing on women, youth and local and marginalized communities

EEA News: Towards global sustainability

Tue, 15 Sep 2015 11:41:00 +0300

A new article on the European Environmental Agency (EEA) website discusses the relevance and importance of Sustainable Development Goals (SSGs).

In August this year, more than 190 countries reached a consensus on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. And later this month, Heads of State will adopt this Agenda along with its Sustainable Development Goals and targets in New York.

Unlike their predecessors, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are both for developing and developed countries and focus on a broader range of sustainable development topics. More precisely, 15 out of the 17 SGDs include elements related to the environment, resource use or climate change.

Read more on the EEA website: http://www.eea.europa.eu/articles/towards-global-sustainability

Searching for Transformations in "Our Common Future Under Climate Change": A Conference Brief

Wed, 09 Sep 2015 16:10:00 +0300

International scientific conferences with the ambitious goal of motivating action on climate change can be overwhelming. In a Conference Brief the DRIFT and GATE (Governing and Accelerating Transformative Entrepreneurship) research team offers reflections on messages from the Paris Conference on climate change research "Our Common Future Under Climate Change".

During the first two days of the conference keynote speakers set the scene for a common message: Climate change is happening and adaptation to extremes needs to be complemented with transformative actions.

Additionally during the 4 day conference, the team also observed that there are dominant ways on how climate change and governance for climate change are framed from the presenting researchers. Altogether 5 additional messages were identified:

Message 1: We need to escape the climate science communication lock in of doom and gloom towards creating narratives of hope and opportunity;
Message 2: We need to understand climate change as an opportunity for sustainability and the delivery of multiple co-benefits;
Message 3: Climate change is happening on multiple (nested, interconnected) scales involving multiple actors;
Message 4: Cities offer tested solutions to deal with climate change transcending sectoral boundaries;
Message 5: Climate scientists are navigating between science and policy/politics.

Read more about these messages and the discussion around them in the Conference Brief.

Presentation at the ‘Transition Management and Regional Governance’ Workshop

Fri, 14 Aug 2015 17:07:00 +0300

What role can Transition Management play in regional governance processes to help small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) navigate through the demographic transition?

At the expert workshop on ‘Transition Management and Regional Governance’ that was hosted by the TransDemo project on June 25-26, 2015 at the University of Osnabrück, Katharina Hölscher presented the Transition Management process methodology and its implementation in the MUSIC project and how it will be advanced for IMPRESSIONS. The operational guidelines, insights and lessons learnt have been discussed in the course for the workshop to discern how Transition Management can support SMEs to address the challenges of the demographic transitions in the long-term.

Click on the image below to see the presentation:

Download the presentation here.

Top British institutions bring attention on the importance of climate change mitigation

Wed, 22 Jul 2015 11:53:00 +0300

An unprecedented coalition of the UK’s most eminent scientific, medical and engineering bodies says immediate action must be taken by governments to avert the worst impacts of climate change. A joint letter by 24 scientific, medical and engineering bodies say mitigation will also bring economic and health benefits.

But the joint communiqué, issued by 24 academic and professional institutions, also says that tackling global warming would drive economic progress, benefit the health of millions by cutting air pollution and improve access to energy, water and food. To have a reasonable chance of keeping warming below 2C, the internationally agreed danger limit, the world must end all emissions within the next few decades, the communiqué warns.

Story source The Guardian. Read more here.

IMPRESSIONS at "Our Common Futures Under Climate Change"

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 15:49:00 +0300

This week, from 7-10 July, the International Scientific Conference "Our Common Futures Under Climate Change" took place in Paris, France. This four-day Conference is the largest forum for the scientific community to come together ahead of the COP21 of the UNFCCC in 2015 .It addresses key issues concerning climate change in the broader context of global change.

IMPRESSIONS co-organised a session entitled "A world above 2°C global warming: understanding risks and developing transformative solutions" which was attended by more than 70 people. The session discussed limitations to conventional climate assessment approaches and the new approaches integrating science and policy for transforming global climate governance.

Click on the image below to see the presentation from the session:

Download presentation here.

IMPRESSIONS was also presented at the meeting via a specially designed poster "Orchestrating Adaptation, Mitigation and Transformation" created and presented by project partners Dutch Research Institute for Transitions (DRIFT), the Erasmus University Rotterdam, Netherlands . The poster looks at how agents shape the capacities for integrated climate governance that links mitigation, adaptation and transformation goals and actions towards promoting resilience and sustainability.

Click on the image below to see the poster:

Seizing the Global Opportunity: A Report by the the New Climate Economy

Tue, 07 Jul 2015 15:49:00 +0300

The New Climate Economy project published its 2015 report Seizing the Global Opportunity, providing 10 practical reccomendation that will boost economic growth and reduce climate risks.

More about the report here: http://2015.newclimateeconomy.report/

The New Climate Economy explores how countries at all levels of income can have better economic growth and a better climate. Explore the new 2015 report for greater insight into how partnerships can help seize the global opportunity of a low-carbon future.

IMPRESSIONS Steering Committee & 1st Iberian Case Study Workshop

Tue, 07 Jul 2015 11:22:00 +0300

The end of June was an eventful time for the IMPRESSIONS project when we hosted two important meetings: (i) a stakeholder workshop for our Iberian case study; and (ii) our 4th project steering committee meeting combined with our international advisory board.

The first IMPRESSIONS Iberia stakeholder workshop took place from 24 to 26 June, in Lisbon, Portugal. Stakeholders from Portugal and Spain from public institutions, civil society and companies gathered to discuss the future of Iberia and the Tagus river basin in the 21st century.

Participants at the Iberia Stakeholder Workshop; Credit: K. Zellmer

During the intensive and interactive 3-day workshop, stakeholders discussed and determined key uncertainties for the region, such as the extent of political foresight, interactions between difference governance levels and whether future development was balanced or unbalanced in terms of economics, environment and society. The uncertainties were then combined with existing socio-economic storylines (the Shared Socio-economic Pathways; SSPs) developed at the global and European scale, to elaborate a set of SSP-related socio-economic scenarios for the Iberian region. At the end of the workshop, the the effects of high-end climate change on these scenarios was explored.

Discussions at the Iberia Stakeholder Workshop; Credit: S. Haenen

In between all these activities, a case study field trip to Lezírias was organized, where in addition, stakeholders experienced a climate theatre performance, illustrating the dynamic bond between climate and humans, in a world beyond 2˚C warming.

To learn more about the Iberian case study, as well as other case studies from IMPRESSIONS and its sister projects RISES-AM and HELIX, visit the interactive map on our common website.

Images from the Project Steering Committee meeting. Credit: Pavel Stoev

The workshop was preceded by an IMPRESSIONS Steering Committee and Advisory Board meeting which took place on 22 & 23 June 2015 in Lisbon. The meeting brought together key project players with international experts to discuss the future directions of project development in important research areas including:

Stakeholder engagement within the case studies
Innovative and effective decision-making under uncertainty
Development of multi-scale integrated scenarios
Advancement of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability methods and models
Development of adaptation and mitigation pathways
Integrated and transformative solutions to high-end climate change
Project dissemination and communication activities

EEA Signals 2015 - Living in a changing climate

Wed, 01 Jul 2015 10:54:00 +0300

The European Environment Agency (EEA) publishes Signals annually, providing a snapshot of issues of interest to the environmental debate and the wider public. Signals 2015 - Living in a changing climate focuses on climate change.

Signals 2015 consists of nine articles, including two interviews. It explains how climate change is currently impacting Europe and how it is expected to impact in the future. Signals also provides information on the main sectors contributing to climate change as well as the EU’s efforts to adapt and mitigate, while taking closer look at investments, soil, oceans and food production in the context of climate change.

To read more and see all articles, please visit the dedicated EEA webpage.

The Bond You Hold: A new theatre performance embodying the dynamic relation between climate and humans

Wed, 24 Jun 2015 17:51:00 +0300

"The Bond You Hold" is a innovative theatre performance embodying the dynamic relation between climate and humans, in a world beyond 2oC warming.

Climate change is an environmental, cultural and political phenomenon propelling transformations on ways of thinking about ourselves, our relations to the biosphere and our common futures. We need novel imagery and embodied experiences to find new ways of thinking and acting in relation to climate change.

High-end climate scenarios (futures where we trespass the 2oC warming threshold) are increasingly more likely. But how would that world look like? Arts have an important role to play in creating spaces and experiences that support this exploration.

"The Bond You Hold" is a compound process that integrates cutting-edge climate change knowledge through a knitted series of collaborations with an international group of climate and social scientists within EU-funded project Impressions leading to the development of this multi-sensorial physical theatre performance.

Impressions workshops will advance understanding of the implications of high-end climate change and to help decision-makers apply such knowledge within integrated adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Scientific content for the performance is provided by Impressions researchers David Tàbara and Kasper Kok.

EURO4M: New analysis aids planning for climate change

Mon, 22 Jun 2015 15:53:00 +0300

A detailed picture of European weather patterns over the past decades is now emerging thanks to an EU-funded project to re-analyse historical records. The results will help governments plan for climate change by better understanding past trends and extreme events.

Anyone with a smartphone can instantly view weather forecasts for the whole of Europe, but looking for historical data is another matter.

"There is no coordinating organisation at EU level for meteorological data from the past," says Albert Klein Tank of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Weather systems do not respect national boundaries yet until now researchers had to dig out records held by agencies in each country.

The recently finished EU-funded EURO4M project, which Klein Tank led, has remedied that by collecting, combining and consolidating weather records from all 28 EU countries and making them available to anyone in readily usable forms. EURO4M builds on an extensive earlier project called ENSEMBLES that created advanced computer models for predicting climate change.

"What is really new in the project is that we now use more detailed weather models to integrate all these different observations and get an even more complete picture," says Klein Tank.

European Environmental Agency (EEA) Annual Report 2014

Wed, 17 Jun 2015 17:23:00 +0300

The European Environmental Agency (EEA) has published its Annual Report describing the work carried out by the EEA in 2014. The EEA annual report includes the EMAS environmental statement 2014.

The EEA aims to support sustainable development and to help achieve significant and measurable improvement in Europe's environment through the provision of timely, targeted, relevant and reliable information to policymaking agents and the public.

Download teh report here.

International conference to hail Glasgow as leading city-region on climate change adaptation

Tue, 28 Apr 2015 15:38:00 +0300

Glasgow has won a bid to host the 3rd European Climate Change Adaptation Conference (ECCA) in 2017, it was announced today (Tuesday 28 April 2015).

This is a leading climate change conference and will attract around a 1000 delegates from the UK, Europe and around the world.

It will mark the first time that the conference has been held in the UK since its inauguration, with previous host cities including Hamburg in Germany and Copenhagen in Denmark.

The 2017 conference is being led by three EU-funded projects: IMPRESSIONS, HELIX and RISES-AM.

Dr. Paula Harrison, Coordinator of the IMPRESSIONS project based at the University of Oxford, said: "Climate change presents a wide range of impacts and risks for the European economy, society and environment. We need robust strategies and solutions to adapt."

"The conference provides the leading forum for sharing amongst science, policy, practice and business communities. We look forward to working with the experienced local team to deliver a conference in Glasgow that inspires real action to adapt to climate change."

Climate resilience is at the core of decisions shaping investment in the city and transforming communities. It is this pioneering work that has won Glasgow the conference.

The bid for the ECCA 2017 conference was put together by a committee from research, policy and practice and was supported by 46 organisations across Scotland and the UK.

Cllr. Gordon Matheson, Leader of Glasgow City Council, Chair of Glasgow City Marketing Bureau and Chair of Sustainable Glasgow, said: "We are delighted that the European Climate Change Adaptation Conference will take place in Glasgow in 2017. Glasgow has strong ambitions for a greener future and a European leader in environmental sustainability."

"Sustainable Glasgow is the cross-sector partnership to take on this challenge. We aim to use the tremendous opportunities now available to us to become a resilient city that adapts to the challenges of climate change."

Cllr Matheson added: "Today, three out of four Europeans live in a city – most of the world’s problems are centred on cities but all of the solutions will come from cities."

"Glasgow is a city where solutions can be found to help have a greener future. We look forward to welcoming the delegates to Glasgow in 2017 and we hope it will be a fantastic opportunity to exchange ideas and best practice to help us to adapt to climate change. We are sure that it will be a memorable conference within our vibrant, friendly and welcoming city and its citizens."

Dr. Aileen McLeod MSP, Minister for Environment, Climate Change and Land Reform, said "I am delighted that Glasgow will host the 2017 European Climate Change Adaptation Conference and believe the aims of the conference fit well with the Scottish Government’s objectives on adaptation. Adaptation to the effects of climate change is a global challenge and we must work together to focus our collective efforts and expertise across Europe to counter the impacts of our changing climate."

Terry A’Hearn, SEPA Chief Executive, said "At SEPA we are determined to help people unlock the economic and social opportunities of mitigating, and adapting to climate change. I am delighted that this conference is coming to Scotland, it will help raise the profile of climate change and inform the co-ordinated action needed to address this critical challenge."

Ruth Wolstenholme, Managing Director of Sniffer, said: "Scotland has built very strong partnerships across research, policy and practice on climate adaptation and resilience. Many countries want to learn from the pioneering work of Scotland’s ClimateXChange research network and Adaptation Scotland support service. Hosting this conference provides recognition and a showcase of our successes."

Dr. Marc Metzger, The University of Edinburgh, said "Scotland is at the forefront of international research on climate change adaptation, a reputation that has brought the world-leading ECCA 2017 to Glasgow. The conference will gather more than a thousand colleagues from around the world to Scotland, an unprecedented opportunity for us to share and learn from each other as we respond to climate change."

People are at the heart of Glasgow’s transformation, and the organisers hope the conference will be an opportunity for both the international experts and the general public to see how the city is living up to its ambitions - ‘from steam to green’.

A range of ground-breaking initiatives have shown Scotland as an example on partnerships for future-proofing the economy. This will be on display at the conference and through a range of excursions to the local area for the delegates.

As one of Europe’s most dynamic cultural capitals, Glasgow is the ideal host for a conference that will integrate culture and arts, and engage with the far reaching community. The city is also known as an outstanding host for sustainable international events that leave a lasting legacy not only locally but for the whole of Scotland.

HELIX Workshop: The Challenge of Communicating Unwelcome Climate Messages

Mon, 27 Apr 2015 09:57:00 +0300

An international workshop titled ‘The Challenge of Communicating Unwelcome Climate Messages’ took place on 16-17th April in Cambridge, UK. The event was organised by our sister project High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX).

The chances of climate impacts worsening with average global temperature rise exceeds 2◦C – or even 4◦C - by mid-century, are increasing. With the increased plausibility of such prospect the question of how can these messages best expressed to the public arises.

The aim of this workshop was to explore how scientists and communicators of science can be more than ‘narrators of doom’, but instead help to stimulate engagement and adaptive responses from policy makers, organisations and publics.

The workshop looked into what are the unwelcome messages from ‘beyond 2◦C’, to whom are they unwelcome, and why.

Discussions focused on what are the best ways to engaging emotions of the public towards building personal resilience and facilitating positive responses to unwelcome climate change messages. Increasing engagement among policy makers and communicating politically inconvenient scientific findings were also among the highlighted themes of the workshop.

First IMPRESSIONS Central Asia workshop

Fri, 17 Apr 2015 09:16:00 +0300

The first IMPRESSIONS Central Asia workshop took place in Almaty, Kazakhstan on 16-17 February 2015. The Central Asia case study focuses on the impacts of high-end climate change in the region, comprising Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The workshop gathered many stakeholders from the region and beyond, including the EU and Russia, coming from NGOs, private companies, international organisations and research institutions, with expertise in key field such as energy, agriculture, water and security.

Following a professionally facilitated process, the experts firstly developed storylines for the region, detailing key uncertainties such as policy and governance, water management, migration and economic development. In addition, the impacts of high-end climate change on these storylines were discussed at the end of the workshop.

The next two Central Asia workshops will be held in 2016 and 2017, and will focus on the indirect impacts of high-end climate change in Central Asia on China and Russia, and the EU. These workshops will explore adaptation and mitigation pathways, and develop innovative policy strategies and responses.

CLIMSAVE Special Issue in the journal Climatic Change

Thu, 09 Apr 2015 11:29:00 +0300

The CLIMSAVE project has now published a Special Issue on "Regional integrated assessment of cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability". The EU 7th Framework programme project was led by Dr Paula Harrison (the IMPRESSIONS Coordinator) and involved 18 partner institutions across Europe.

The special issue (Climatic Change Volume 128, Issue 3 – 4), describes the development and application of a user-friendly software tool that has been designed to allow stakeholders to carry out regional integrated assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability for themselves. The 17 papers deal with the development and evaluation of the tool (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) and the participatory scenarios within it, a series of cross-sectoral impact and adaptation case studies using the tool to assess the outcomes for multiple sectors, adaptive capacity, vulnerability hotspots, cost-effectiveness of adaptation options, interactions between adaptation and mitigation, and a synthesis of the project outcomes focusing on how the tool can be used to inform robust policy responses to climate change. The volume provides an overview of the difficulties and utility of, and lessons for the future for, stakeholder-led regional integrated assessment of climate change.

The IMPRESSIONS European case study is advancing the development of the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform to include time-dependent responses and additional sectors.

More information available on the CLIMSAVE website: http://www.climsave.eu/climsave/papersSI.html

Social vulnerability and climate change – online resource published

Tue, 31 Mar 2015 14:35:00 +0300

Climate Just is a new online resource intended to help identify communities that are vulnerable to extreme climate change impacts such as flooding and heatwaves. Primarily intended for municipalities and community-based groups in England, Climate Just helps to identify local resources to address social vulnerability and build local adaptation capacity.

Climate change has the potential to increase inequalities and disadvantage in the UK. Local authorities and other organisations working on climate change, or working with vulnerable communities, have a key role to play in responding to this challenge. The Climate Just website has been developed to provide evidence to support local action.

It highlights which people and places are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather, including flooding and extreme heat, and the areas which might be most affected.
It also examines fuel poverty and inequities in energy policy and how these can be tackled locally.
Take a look at our maps to identify the issues in your local area and find guidance, case studies and resources on actions you could take to help build local resilience.

Find out more here: http://www.climatejust.org.uk/

European Environment - State and Outlook 2015

Tue, 31 Mar 2015 14:23:00 +0300

The European Environment Agency has published its flagship report, the European Environment - State and Outlook 2015 (SOER 2015) .

It contains excellent online resources with detailed information, including downloadable graphs, tables and images. The report is compiled every five years and includes an assessment of trends and prospects, information on individual countries and regions, cross-country comparisons and the global context.

Aggregated level information on climate change, impacts, vulnerability and adaptation is included.

Read more and find the report online here: http://www.eea.europa.eu/soer

First IMPRESSIONS Central Asia Case Study Stakeholder Workshop

Mon, 16 Feb 2015 10:39:00 +0200

The first IMPRESSIONS stakeholder workshop dedicated to the project's Central Asia case study has now started in Almaty, Kazakhstan. The 2-day workshop is taking place on 16 & 17 February 2015. It is the first in a planned series of three workshops per case study that will take place over the project's lifetime to facilitate science-policy dialogue in relation to responding to the consequences of high-end climate change.

The Central Asia case study aims to answer questions of:

What will the implications of extreme climate change be for regional security and stability in Central Asia?
What will be the knock-on effects for Russia and China?
How can the EU best respond?

This first participatory scenario building workshop marks the beginning of the IMPRESSIONS EU External case study to explore transboundary climate change impacts on energy links, migration, agricultural exports and complex human and ‘hard’ security dynamics in one of the world’s most contested and strategic regions.

IMPRESSIONS Second General Assembly Meeting: The future under extreme climate change

Thu, 29 Jan 2015 11:35:00 +0200

The Second IMPRESSIONS General Assembly took place from 20 until 22 January 2015 in the meeting rooms of the beautiful Casa Convalescència, at the UAB Campus, Barcelona. Climate change impact, adaptation and mitigation experts from 30 institutions got together to discuss the possible implications of high-end climate change (i.e. beyond +2oC).

Participants at the 2nd IMPRESSIONS General Assembly, Barcelona, Spain.

After the IMPRESSIONS official kick-off meeting held in January last year, the project has progressed many conceptual and theoretical aspects of its work programme related to the development of multi-scale climate and socio-economic scenarios of the future, their application to climate change impact models, how this can inform the assessment of different adaptation and mitigation pathways for society, and thereby support decision-making under such highly uncertain futures.

Following progress reports from each of the project’s work packages and case studies, intensive discussion on specific topics took place. These included:

the process for stakeholder engagement at the 1st set of workshops in each case study which will focus on the development of socio-economic scenarios up to 2100;
the process for stakeholder engagement between the 3 sets of stakeholder workshops in each case study;
detailed planning for the EU external (central Asia) case study workshop which takes place next month in Almaty, Kazakhstan;
development of protocols for application of impact models to different scenario futures whilst understanding model sensitivity, robustness and uncertainty;
evaluation of the appropriateness of existing approaches for analysing costs and benefits under high-end scenarios;
development of the methodology for stress-testing existing policies in case studies to high-end climate change;
further development of the different components of the methodology for developing adaptation and mitigation pathways, such as actions, strategies, transformation, transformability, capacities and capitals, resilience, vulnerability and visions; and
review of the wildcards that will be used to stress-test the adaptation and mitigation pathways in the 3rd set of stakeholder workshops in each case study.

Project Coordinator Dr. Paula Harrison, University of Oxford and meeting organizer Dr. J. David Tábara, giving an opening talk at the IMPRESSIONS 2nd General Assembly meeting

During the meeting the work of the two IMPRESSIONS’ sister projects HELIX and RISES-AM- was also presented. More about the projects can be found here: http://highendclimateresearch.eu/

IMPRESSIONS workshops: Making the case for Hungary

Fri, 19 Dec 2014 14:24:00 +0200

Two IMPRESSIONS workshops were held on 10 &11 December 2014 in Veszprém and Szekszárd, Hungary, to discuss recent project activities and next steps, as well as to learn about key stakeholder issues and activities related to climate change. Participants at the workshops included local and regional environmental experts and decision makers.

During the workshops, the project was presented to stakeholders, giving a general overview of IMPRESSIONS’ aims and objectives, as well as providing an update on its current status. Some of the models used in the Hungarian case study to explore climate change impacts and vulnerability were also presented by Sen Li, Oxford University. The workshop ended with detailed discussions around the various technical and content aspects of the case study, local climate change and related development policies, and future steps for the IMPRESSIONS project.

Amongst others, the workshop in the city of Veszprém included Mr. László Imre, the Clerk of Veszprém County, the county’s highest level administrative body (Hungary counts 19 counties), who expressed his interest in collaborating with the project. At the meeting he noted that they are in the process of preparing long-term county-level development plans and would welcome the opportunity to take perspectives and findings from the IMPRESSIONS project into account.

Representatives of the Municipality of Szekszárd also expressed their interest in incorporating findings of the IMPRESSIONS project into their agenda, as all topic areas are vital to the sustainable development of the region. Moreover the workshop was followed by a short field trip in the surroundings of the city with the aim to offer an insight into the local set-ups to the IMPRESSIONS team.

Large image: Participants at the workshop in Szekszárd; Small left: Discussions in Szekszárd; Small right: Presenting IMPRESSIONS in Veszprém

As a result of the interest and enthusiasm of partners both in Szekszárd and Veszprém, the event achieved good coverage in the media, including a short report on a local TV channel, a radio interview, and news featured online and in print editions, and environmental portals.

The ACES (A Community on Ecosystem Services) 2014 conference

Fri, 19 Dec 2014 09:57:00 +0200

The ACES (A Community on Ecosystem Services) 2014 conference linking science, practice and decision-making took place from 8-12 December 2014 in Washington DC. There were over 500 participants at ACES 2014 from over 30 nations, including leaders from all levels of the US government, NGOs, academia, and the private sector. The conference extended over five days and included workshops, plenary and parallel sessions, town halls, and posters. Session topics included the impacts of climate change on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and their services, biophysical science and the production of ecosystem services, the interrelationship between human well-being and ecosystem services, monetary and non-monetary valuation techniques, and the role of traditional ecological knowledge.

IMPRESSIONS Coordinator (Paula Harrison) participated in the plenary panel on "Climate Change and Ecosystem Services" and presented a paper on "Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: Adapting to the impacts of climate and socio-economic change". Mark Rounsevell (WP3 co-leader) also attended the conference presenting a paper on "Quantifying the uncertainties within a cross-sectoral, integrated assessment of the impact of climate change on ecosystem services in Europe".

The conference provided a venue for synthesizing the research, methods, tools, policies and cultural values needed to more routinely and effectively incorporate ecosystem services and climate change adaptation into decision-making. There were many opportunities to share advances in science and practice, and to continue to build the ecosystem service community and better link it with the climate change impacts and adaptation community.

The CLIM-RUN project: Adapting to climate change, Mediterranean style

Mon, 08 Dec 2014 11:40:00 +0200

Climate change is global - but affects people locally. An EU-funded project is giving Mediterranean businesses and local governments the information they need to plan ahead by taking the impact of local climate change into account. The project is also helping to build a Europe-wide climate information service.

The Mediterranean area is particularly sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that the region will experience rising sea levels, an increasing number of extreme weather events – including storms and drought – and more frequent wild fires, affecting society, locals and visitors alike.

Local businesses and policymakers need accurate, tailored information to plan for these events so they can adapt to the expected impacts. The EU-funded CLIM-RUN project developed methods to improve the details and the reliability of climate information for the Mediterranean area and to communicate it in an effective way to local users.

CLIM-RUN designed its method to support a future World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) climate services network designed for the entire planet.

The project team followed the guidelines of the Global Framework for Climate Services established by the WMO and adapted climate change models to needs identified by local businesses and policymakers. Users then access the modelling results via CLIM-RUN’s web portal, which relates the models’ results to their specific industries and regions.

To help users benefit as much as possible from the climate service, the team also developed information sheets explaining how they produced their predictions and how to interpret the CLIM-RUN data.

More infromaton is available in the original feature article posted on teh DG Reaseach and Innovation website.

New World Bank climate report: the world Is locked into ~1.5°C warming and risks are rising

Thu, 27 Nov 2014 12:07:00 +0200

A new report exploring the impact of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia and finds that warming of close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial times is already locked into the Earth’s atmospheric system by past and predicted greenhouse gas emissions. Without concerted action to reduce emissions, the planet is on pace for 2°C warming by mid-century and 4°C or more by the time today’s teenagers are in their 80s.

The report warns that as temperatures rise, heat extremes on par with the heat waves in the United States in 2012 and Russia in 2010 will become more common. Melting permafrost will release methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that will drive more warming in a dangerous feedback loop. Forests, including the Amazon, are also at risk. A world even 1.5°C will mean more severe droughts and global sea level rise, increasing the risk of damage from storm surges and crop loss and raising the cost of adaptation for millions of people.

Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal is the third in a series of reports commissioned by the World Bank Group from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics. The first report looked at risks globally if the world were to warm by 4°C. The second report focused on three regions – Africa, South Asia, and South East Asia – and the risks to food security, water security, and low-lying cities exposed to dangerous sea level rise and vulnerability to storms.

Call for Expressions of Interest in hosting the 3rd European Climate Change Adaptation Conference in 2017

Thu, 20 Nov 2014 10:50:00 +0200

The three projects IMPRESSIONS, HELIX and RISES-AM, co-funded by FP7 of the European Union, will organise the 3^rd European Climate Change Adaptation Conference (ECCA) in 2017. Expressions of interest (EOI) for hosting the 3^rd ECCA in 2017 are invited. EOIs should be 2 page maximum and describe:

· why the conference should be located in the suggested location, in particular referring to any relevant activities related to adaptation to climate change,

· the potential conference venue,

· the support that could be offered, and

· the organisations that support the EOI and would form part of the local organising team.

EOIs should be emailed to Paula Harrison (paula.harrison@ouce.ox.ac.uk) by 11 January 2015.

Proposals will be evaluated and selected by a steering group representing the three FP7 projects and applicants will be notified by 31 January 2015 about the outcome. Successful EOIs will be expected to submit full proposals by 31 March 2015. A decision on the final location for ECCA 2017 will be made by 30 April 2015, so that it can be announced at the ECCA 2015 conference.

Any queries, please contact Paula Harrison (paula.harrison@ouce.ox.ac.uk).

UNEP-WCMC: Towards a global map of natural capital

Wed, 19 Nov 2014 10:14:00 +0200

For the first time, a composite map of the world’s ecosystem assets has been produced, covering both marine and terrestrial realms. A report for the UNEP Division of Early Warning and Assessment by UNEP-WCMC presents global maps of assets such as biodiversity, freshwater resources and soil quality.

Natural capital is fundamental to human well-being. According to the Convention on Biological Diversity, at least 40 per cent of the world’s economy and 80 per cent of the needs of the poor are derived from biological resources. We are now facing a problem where natural capital has been harvested and degraded at a rate that threatens to undermine our well-being and future economic growth.

In their latest report UNEP-WCMC have combined information about key ecosystem assets into global maps covering terrestrial and marine realms. The assets included are freshwater resources, soil quality, organic carbon, terrestrial and marine biodiversity, and global fish catch (as a proxy for marine fish stocks). The report builds on a considerable body of work in the fields of natural capital accounting and the mapping of ecosystem services.

To read more and download the full report, please follow the link: http://www.unep-wcmc.org/news/towards-a-global-map-of-natural-capital

Climate change: learning from the past to safeguard the future

Mon, 17 Nov 2014 14:47:00 +0200

How much can we really predict about the impact of climate change on groups of animals, plants, and natural habitats? DG Research and Innovation tells us a success story of how the EU-funded Ecochange project turned to fossil records to investigate how species respond to even minor changes. Scientists can use this research to design ways to protect biodiversity from climate change.

Understanding the scale of the threat from climate change is crucial to being able to create conditions for the broadest possible range of biodiversity to survive. Over the last decade or so, scientists have developed general models to predict the impact on plants, animals and habitats. But the findings have been difficult to validate, and their lack of precision means that the risks and rates of change may have been exaggerated.

The Ecochange project, funded by the European Union under a Marie Curie Fellowship and coordinated by Oxford University, UK, started out with two objectives: to investigate whether palaeoecological data from ancient fossil remains can increase our knowledge of current climate change impacts, and to study specific environments and how they can protect species from hostile climate conditions.

Ecochange used so-called ‘Species Distribution Models’ (SDMs), which link information about the occurrence of species with general environmental data. But to make the models more sensitive to small-scale variations, the researchers added a high-resolution study of the physical characteristics of landscapes.

For example, geologic and geomorphic conditions were found to be just as important as temperatures in regulating the growth of mountain forests, which could be crucial refuges for small wildlife populations. The project set out to identify all the variable factors influencing the impact of past, current and future climate change.

Lessons from the past

To validate the models, and understand the relationship between animals and their environment, the scientists looked to the past. The ‘Quaternary’ fossil record covers the last two million years. Traces of shells, teeth, pollen and seeds reconstruct vanished ecosystems and give clues to how animals and plants lived and died.

"Including species-occurrence data in periods other than the present allows researchers to expand their understanding of the responses that species have had in periods of past climatic changes," explains Marc Macias Fauria, Ecochange’s Marie Curie Fellow.

This approach was applied to a number of ‘taxa’ (populations of organisms that together form a unit) in woody areas, helping to predict how they might react to future climate and environmental change.

"This study demonstrated that, when carefully selected, palaeoecological data can be used in conjunction with SDMs in order to track and better understand species’ responses to changes in climate even in relatively short time periods," notes Macias Fauria.

The project has generated a number of spin-offs. The scientists have launched new collaborative studies with Canada, Finland, Russia, Sweden, Norway and UK, creating an expanded, EU-based research network.

"We are examining new questions that deepen the topic and promise high-impact science in the coming years," says Macias Fauria. This includes research into the effect of reindeer grazing on tundra vegetation, and how this vegetation reacts to temperature change.

Palaeoecological records are emerging as an important resource for conservation and land management policies, as well as the development of strategies for conservation and mitigating climate change. The ideas from the project now form part of an M.Sc. course on SDMs at Oxford University, which is highly appreciated by students.

"I have a PhD student, Henrik Hannemann, with a background in ecology and economics who is using this approach to directly tackle conservation strategies in Europe," says Macias Fauria.

AMPERE project: EU research shows need for action now on climate change

Tue, 11 Nov 2014 18:02:00 +0200

The EU-funded AMPERE project has analysed various projected scenarios on climate change and its effects on society and found that taking action sooner rather than later reduces the costs of mitigation.

Forecast models on the effects of climate change on society and the environment are complex and can yield different results. EU-funded researchers have analysed these scenarios and found overwhelming evidence that taking action sooner rather than later reduces the costs of mitigation. Their research aims to help policymakers make informed decisions to mitigate climate change.

Energy-economy model assessments can inform policy discussions with insights into the costs of decisive climate change mitigation as well as the costs of delaying action. The EU-funded AMPERE project, which ended in January 2014, studied a diverse range of scenarios and was able to demonstrate that taking action sooner rather than later will reduce the costs of climate change mitigation.

Mitigation actions are designed to limit the magnitude of long-term climate change, and generally involve reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases. Mitigation strategies include switching to low-carbon energy sources, such as renewable and nuclear energy, and expanding forests to remove greater amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The project’s findings are important for the EU, says project coordinator Elmar Kriegler of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Studies, Germany.

"As European leaders discuss the EU’s 2030 climate policy framework and prepare for the crucial Paris COP 21 (United Nations Climate Change Conference) in 2015, the results of AMPERE are expected to provide timely insights," says Kriegler.

He adds: "The results from several models indicate that the EU could afford unilateral ambitious climate action and that overall carbon leakage would likely be small. If other major emitters reciprocate, a strong signal by the EU can effectively limit global warming. Europe can signal the will for strong emission reductions at manageable economic costs. However, European decarbonisation requires strong 2030 targets and holds challenges as well as opportunities for Europe."

The detailed AMPERE findings have been published in a 2014 special issue of the international journal ‘Technological Forecasting and Social Change’.

Contribution of EU-funded research to IPCC's 5th Assessment Report - Memo 31/10/2014

Read the full article here.

Answering the call for climate change action

Tue, 11 Nov 2014 17:45:00 +0200

An EU-funded project has developed cross-border research clusters, designed to help European countries combine their knowledge and resources to tap funding opportunities and better tackle climate change.

Together with CIRCLE (which ran from 2004 until 2009), the EU-funded CIRCLE-2 project, which ended in April 2014, completes a decade of bringing together research and funding institutions to better target and more effectively allocate resources to cope with climate change.

The importance of this project should not be underestimated. Adaptation – anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action such as using scarce water resources more efficiently and building better flood defences – could save Europe billions in damage repairs, not to mention lives. Resources however must be properly targeted if adaptation strategies are to be effective.

"This project was about coordinating research and funding institutions," explains CIRCLE-2 coordinator Tiago Capela Lourenço from the University of Lisbon, Portugal. "We designed transnational research agendas, and from these developed sub-networks made up of institutions in, for example, the Nordic, Mediterranean, Atlantic and mountainous regions of Europe."

Read the full article here.

Nature-Based Solutions: Innovation potential for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth in Europe

Fri, 17 Oct 2014 16:51:00 +0300

On Tuesday 30 September 2014, the European Parliament Intergroup on "Climate Change, Biodiversity and Sustainable Development", in collaboration with the European Commission and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), organised a full day conference entitled: "Nature-Based Solutions: Innovation potential for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth in Europe."

Bringing together 140 participants including representatives from the European Institutions, local and regional authorities, research institutes, NGOs and International organisations, as well as private sector representatives, this conference aimed at promoting the solutions that nature can offer in tackling major challenges, such as climate change and natural disasters, in ensuring food security to an increasing population, in protecting the health of European citizens, and the conservation of biodiversity in the EU and at the global level.

The speakers, panellists and participants in the audience all agreed that using nature to tackle some of the most pressing challenges of our time can be cost-effective, can help safeguard the environment and halt biodiversity loss, and can provide numerous economic and social benefits by creating jobs and growth and by stimulating innovation.

Read more and find results from the conference here.

EEA Report: National adaptation policy processes in European countries — 2014

Wed, 15 Oct 2014 13:24:00 +0300

The European Environment Agency published a new report on "National adaptation policy processes in European countries - 2014". This document provides a Europe‑wide state of play for adaptation activities. It offers up‑to‑date and targeted information to support the development, implementation and evaluation of national adaptation policies and measures addressing climate change.

The report draws on the results of a self‑assessment survey conducted on national adaptation policy processes in Europe. In May 2013, a survey was sent out by the European Environment Agency (EEA) to authorities in countries responsible for coordinating adaptation at national level (the 32 EEA member countries, and in Croatia in July 2013 as a new EU Member State and EEA member country). Thirty EEA member countries provided their responses on a voluntary basis. Thanks to the high response rate and the wealth of information provided by these European countries, the report presents a unique collection of information and the largest and most comprehensive analysis of national adaptation policy processes in Europe, to date.

The full report is available on the EEA website: http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/national-adaptation-policy-processes

Climate change alters the ecological impacts of seasons: Max Planck paper observes temperature variability across the world

Fri, 10 Oct 2014 11:09:00 +0300

Only recently, the UN Climate Summit came together in New York to further address the necessary measures to protect the Earth from a dramatic climate change. It has long been recognised that an increase of the average temperature will cause rising oceans and thus flooded landscapes. Particularly, regions close to the coasts are endangered. While it is well known that climate change has increased average temperatures, it is less clear how temperature variability has altered with climate change.

Postdoctoral fellow George Wang, from Detlef Weigel's Department for Molecular Biology at the Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology, has now examined this issue in more depth.

He realized that existing climate measures did not provide enough information to predict the life history responses, such as hatching, hibernation, or flowering of organisms. Together with his partner Michael Dillon, an Assistant Professor in the Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, USA, he started to analyse climate conditions since records began to be kept.

"We describe, for the first time, changes in temperature variability across the globe. We've had a long discussion about changes in the mean temperature. It has been ongoing for over 30 years," says George Wang. "It's very clear mean temperatures have shifted across the globe. It's less clear if the variation in temperature has changed."

For example, the variability in temperature could potentially mean bugs survive for a longer period in non-tropical regions. The result could be increased crop damage from pest insects or spread of diseases, such as malaria transmitted by mosquitoes.

In addition, plants in temperate regions are adapted to use temperature to tell the season. This is how they know when to produce flowers and fruits. As daily temperature cycles become more extreme, it becomes harder for plants to behave appropriately to the season. Therefore, plants might produce flowers too early or too late, and so there might be some years where certain fruits never appear.

Wang is first author of a paper, titled "Recent Geographic Convergence in Diurnal and Annual Temperature Cycling Flattens Global Thermal Profiles," that was published last Sunday (Sept. 28) in the online edition of Nature Climate Change. Dillon is the paper's co-writer. The monthly journal is dedicated to publishing the most significant and cutting-edge research on the science of climate change, its impacts and wider implications for the economy, society and policy.

Wang and Dillon first estimated global spacial variation in the mean temperature and in temperature cycling by analysing more than 1 billion temperature measurements from 7,906 weather stations that sampled from the period of Jan. 1, 1926, through Dec. 31, 2009. Analysis of monthly and yearly averages of daily temperature extremes reveals that daily and annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased across the world since 1950. The scientists then estimated global changes in the magnitudes of diurnal and annual temperature cycles from 1975-2013.

The research was "very computationally intensive", as Michael Dillon points out. The researchers had to use computer clusters on two continents, with the majority of the work performed on the cluster at the MPI for Developmental Biology. They also used a new mathematical technique to describe how temperature changes from day to night, and winter to summer, thus characterizing the variability of temperature over the globe.

According to this, the changes have been most dramatic for places closest to the poles and far from oceans. "In these places, warmer winters -- decreasing the difference between summer and winter -- and hotter days -- increasing the difference between day and night -- mean that the range of temperatures, which organisms experience over a few days, is closer to the range of temperatures they experience over an entire year. These patterns are strongest in Canada and Russia, but occur even in Germany," explains Wang. "For example, in Wiesbaden, in 1992, the average difference between day and night was 1.2 degrees, while the average difference between summer and winter was 24.8 degrees. In 2012, the day/night cycle was 5.2 degrees, while the summer/winter cycle was 18.9, so the daily temperature variability is now much more similar to the yearly variability. Compare this to Las Palmas in the Canary Islands, where the day/night difference is about 4.3 degrees and the summer/winter difference is about 6.7 -- it has not changed very much."

The range of diurnal temperature cycling (DTC), meaning the change in temperature from the daytime high to nighttime low, was lowest at the poles, intermediate at the tropics and was relatively small close to large bodies of water and at lower elevations, according to the study. The range of annual temperature cycling (ATC), meaning temperatures for any given location will go through a regular cycle on an annual basis, was lowest at the tropics and increased toward the poles.

"For these temperature zones that we historically think of as having lower daily variations relative to the annual variations in temperatures, what we found in these zones is that the ATC has not changed much in the last 30 to 40 years," Michael Dillon explains. "But, the DTC has gone up considerably. If the annual is constant and daily temperatures increase, areas outside the tropics will become more tropical. This idea of convergence could be a really important thing."

The findings show that no place is safe from climate change. "Most people are rightly concerned about sea level rise, but feel that this will not affect them if they don't live next to the ocean. We find that places far from the oceans will have be biggest changes in daily and seasonal temperature variability, because they are far away from the buffering effects of oceans", says Wang. Therefore, there would be no places immune from effects of climate change, and this would have consequences on crops, parasites, and disease.

Original Publication:

Wang, G.; Dillon, Michael E.; Recent geographic convergence in diurnal and annual temperature cycling flattens global thermal profiles; Nature Climate Change; Published online 28th September 2014; doi:10.1038/nclimate2378 http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2378.html

Aichi Targets Passport, 2014 Edition: Browse the Aichi Biodiversity Targets and their indicators on your mobile

Fri, 10 Oct 2014 10:38:00 +0300

The latest instalment of the Aichi Targets Passport is available now to download as an app from iTunes and Google Play.

As the flagship publication of the Biodiversity Indicators Partnership (BIP), the Aichi Targets Passport provides annual updates on the global biodiversity indicators that monitor progress towards the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 and the underlying Aichi Biodiversity Targets.

The suite of indicators presented in the Aichi Targets Passport was brought together by the BIP. They are as far as possible, global in their coverage, scientifically valid and peer reviewed, and relevant to the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. In particular, indicators are presented to highlight the progress that has been made towards each target so far and what baselines exist from which future progress can be monitored.

The Aichi Targets Passport was first released as a "proof of concept" in October 2012 and included one or two indicators for each Aichi Biodiversity Target. Since the release of the Beta version, the BIP Partnership has continued working to enhance and increase the number of global indicators available for each of the targets. In its app format, the information contained in the Aichi Targets Passport is at your fingertips at any time.

This latest edition of the Aichi Targets Passport has been released in tandem with the fourth edition of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Global Biodiversity Outlook (GBO-4). In addition to information on which of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets is on-course to completion and which targets require more action, GBO-4 presents options that could halt further biodiversity loss.

The indicators presented in the Aichi Targets Passport are those contained in CBD decision XI/3 with some additional indicators that have been, or are being, developed to fill gaps.

To download the Aichi Targets Passport visit: http://www.bipindicators.net/resource/aichipassport

iTunes: http://goo.gl/dOWujN

Google Play: http://goo.gl/BN6AfG

Second IMPRESSIONS modellers meeting, Pisa, Italy

Thu, 09 Oct 2014 10:01:00 +0300

The modellers in the IMPRESSIONS project met for a second time in Pisa, Italy from 30 September to 1 October 2014. Computer models are being used in IMPRESSIONS to develop new knowledge and evidence on the impacts of, and adaptation to, high-end scenarios (HES) on key sectors and resources for the globe, Europe and three regional case studies (Scotland, Hungary and Iberia).

Simulated changes in a range of urban, health, agricultural, forestry, water, coastal, biodiversity, tourism, land use and economic indicators over time under high-end climate and socio-economic scenarios will be used to help stakeholders and decision-makers develop long-term adaptation strategies for coping with HES.

The purpose of the meeting was to: (i) finalise the conceptual framework which links the modelling activities to work undertaken in the rest of the project; (ii) define a model linkages framework which highlights information that is passed between different models covering various sectors and scales to ensure an integrated approach; and (iii) develop model application protocols for consistent testing and use of models in sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, uncertainty analysis and inter-model comparison exercises.

In addition, agreements were reached on a core set of integrated Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, a consistent climate and socio-economic baseline, and future timeslices up to 2100 for assessing the consequences of high-end climate change.

How vulnerable to climate change is agriculture in the Black Sea region?

Fri, 05 Sep 2014 10:27:00 +0300

The latest issue of Science for Environment Policy features a recent study, funded by the EU enviroGRIDS project, which assesses the vulnerability of agricultural water resources to climate change in the Black Sea catchment. The original research was pubsished in the journal Environmental Science & Policy.

The impacts of climate change in the Black Sea region are likely to affect agriculture in Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, Hungary, Bulgaria and Turkey, new research suggests. The number of days of plant growth was reduced in these countries as a result of reduced precipitation, increased temperatures and low capacity for irrigation to supplement water needs. A strong legal framework is necessary to deal with conflicting future demands for water, say the researchers.

Climate change is expected to affect water supplies in the Black Sea region, with rising temperatures and reduced rain and snowfall potentially leading to water shortages. Agriculture accounts for most of this region's water consumption and will be particularly affected by such impacts.

The researchers used the Driver – Pressure – State – Impact – Response (DPSIR) framework to link the pressures, such as a reduction in rainfall, to potential actions that can be taken to mitigate the impacts. They combined this with a measure of vulnerability that takes into account the sensitivity of the agricultural system (e.g. plant types and resilience to stress) and its capacity to adapt.

They based their assessment on three climate change scenarios: (i) an increase in daily temperature of 3°C; (ii) a decrease in daily precipitation of 30%; (iii) a combined temperature increase and precipitation decrease, of 3% and 30% respectively. All scenarios were relative to baseline conditions during 1996 to 2006. Data came from output of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool developed for the whole of the Black Sea catchment.

Based on the number of days that plants can grow in a year, which is affected by daily temperature and water availability, the researchers found that the temperature increase was beneficial for plant growth across the region, as the number of days too cold for growth fell. In contrast, less precipitation reduced the number of days of plant growth.

Combined temperature increases and precipitation decreases affected plant growth in different regions of the catchment differently. Where the impact of reduced precipitation outweighed the impact of temperature increases, the overall impact on plant growth was negative. Moreover, the capacity to adapt to these changes by using irrigation was generally reduced across the catchment area, compared with the baseline conditions. The researchers considered that irrigation would only be possible if there was sufficient water to ensure that withdrawals would not jeopardise aquatic ecosystems, which were to be given priority over irrigation.

Switzerland, Italy, Albania, Montenegro, Slovenia and Austria were most likely to benefit from climate change. These mountainous countries are likely to have more higher-temperature days and will also be least affected by a reduced irrigation potential (i.e. the number of days per year when sufficient water is available). Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, Hungary, Bulgaria and particularly Turkey are likely to be more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, mainly as a result of more dry days and reduced irrigation potential.

Reduced water availability is likely to lead to higher demand for irrigated water, competing with the water needs of a healthy aquatic environment. To meet the challenges of managing shared water resources in the face of competing demand, the study's authors emphasise the need for a strong legal framework that covers the whole of the Black Sea catchment and focuses on the role played by irrigation in agriculture.

Original Source:

Bär, R., Rouholahnedjad, E., Rahman, K. et al. (2014). Climate change and agricultural water resources: A vulnerability assessment of the Black Sea catchment. Environmental Science & Policy. DOI:10.1016/j.envsci.2014.04.008.

Scaling in ecology and biodiversity conservation explained in a book and an online tool

Mon, 04 Aug 2014 18:17:00 +0300

The 5-year EU project Securing the Conservation of biodiversity across Administrative Levels and spatial, temporal, and Ecological Scales (SCALES) has come to an end in July 2014 resulting in a first of its kind description of challenges that arise in protecting biodiversity across different scales.

A wide range of practical methods and recommendations to improve conservation at regional, national and supranational scales are included in a book published as a synthesis of project outcomes. The book "Scaling in Ecology and Biodiversity Conservation" was published in advanced open access via Pensoft Publisher's Advanced Books platform. This innovative format aimed at accelerating data publishing, mining, sharing and reuse, offers a range of semantic enhancements to book contents, including external sources.

Results are also presented in an easy to use interactive SCALETOOL, specifically developed for the needs of policy and decision-makers. The tool also provides access to a range of biodiversity data and driver maps compiled or created in the project.

Human actions, motivated by social and economic driving forces, generate various pressures on biodiversity, such as habitat loss and fragmentation, climate change, land use related disturbance patterns, or species invasions that have an impact on biodiversity.

Each of these factors acts at characteristic scales, and the scales of social and economic demands, of environmental pressures, of biodiversity impacts, of scientific analysis, and of governmental responses do not necessarily match. However, management of the living world will be effective only if we understand how problems and solutions change with scale.

'The book and the tool are the first of their kind and would be of great help to everyone concerned with the conservation of biodiversity. They provide ideas of how to handle complex issues of scaling in applied and theoretical environmental studies' says the chief editor Prof. Klaus Henle.

The book aims to bundle the main results of SCALES in a comprehensive manner and present it in a way that is usable not only for scientists but also for people making decisions in administration, management, policy or even business and NGOs; to people who are more interested in the "practical" side of this issue.

Guidelines, practical solutions and special tools are also presented as a special web based portal, SCALETOOL, which puts together scientific outcomes widely spread over the scientific literature.

###

Original Source:

Henle K, Potts S, Kunin W, Matsinos Y, Simila J, Pantis J, Grobelnik V, Penev L, Settele J (Eds) (2014) Scaling in Ecology and Biodiversity Conservation. Advanced Books: e1169. doi: 10.3897/ab.e1169

The Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) calls for urgent action on climate change

Thu, 24 Jul 2014 15:42:00 +0300

The Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) is calling on world leaders to take urgent action on climate change to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees centigrade through an official statement signed by some of the world’s leading thinkers and practitioners in the field.

The message will be presented to world leaders on the occasion of the Climate Leaders’ Summit, convened by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at the United Nations, New York City, on September 23, 2014. The SDSN calls for organsations and individuals in the field to add their name alongside many of the world’s leading scientists and climate experts.

Launched by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in August 2012, the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) mobilizes scientific and technical expertise from academia, civil society, and the private sector in support of sustainable development problem solving at local, national, and global scales. The SDSN works closely with United Nations agencies, multilateral financing institutions, the private sector, and civil society.

The scale of the global sustainable development challenge is unprecedented. The fight against extreme poverty has made great progress under the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), but more than 1 billion people continue to live in extreme poverty. Inequality and social exclusion are widening within most countries. As the world population is estimated to rise to 9 billion by 2050 and global GDP to more than US$200 trillion, the world urgently needs to address the sustainable development challenges of ending poverty, increasing social inclusion, and sustaining the planet, which must be underpinned by good public and private governance.

The organization and governance of the SDSN aims to enable a large number of leaders from all regions and a diverse set of backgrounds to participate in the running of the network while at the same time ensuring effective structures for decision making and accountability.

The Spiral Project Handbook: Effective interfaces between science, policy and society

Thu, 24 Jul 2014 14:51:00 +0300

The Spiral Project Handbook: Effective interfaces between science, policy and society was developed as part of the SPIRAL project. SPIRAL is an interdisciplinary research project that studies science-policy interfaces between biodiversity research and policy to draw lessons and improve the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity.

This handbook provides a manual for projects and individuals interested in designing or improving interfaces between science, policy and society. It is challenging – but important – to establish appropriate connections between the diverse insights and perspectives of scientists and other knowledge holders, and the needs and interests of decision-takers, implementers and other knowledge users. These connections and interactions are the "science-policy interface" (SPI). Designing and improving SPIs of EU-funded research projects is the aim of this handbook.

The handbook is structured around five main issues. It starts with a brief introduction to what SPIs are, and what they are not. Then moves on to the issue of why SPIs are needed before looking at certain important attributes of SPIs, namely credibility, relevance, legitimacy and iterativity. In the next part of the handbook, some steps and recommendations for designing, maintaining and improving the SPIs of EUfunded research projects are outlined. As part of this some factors facilitating successful SPIs are discussed.

SPIRAL was funded under the EU 7th Framework Programme, contract number 244035.

Original Source:

Young, J.C., Watt, A.D. van den Hove, S. and the SPIRAL project team1. 2013. Effective interfaces between science, policy and society: the SPIRAL project handbook. http://www.spiralproject.eu/content/documents

IPCC Report: A changing climate creates pervasive risks but opportunities exist for effective responses

Wed, 18 Jun 2014 09:30:00 +0300

Responses will face challenges with high warming of the climate

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a report today that says the effects of climate change are already occurring on all continents and across the oceans. The world, in many cases, is ill-prepared for risks from a changing climate. The report also concludes that there are opportunities to respond to such risks, though the risks will be difficult to manage with high levels of warming.

The report, titled Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, from Working Group II of the IPCC, details the impacts of climate change to date, the future risks from a changing climate, and the opportunities for effective action to reduce risks. A total of 309 coordinating lead authors, lead authors, and review editors, drawn from 70 countries, were selected to produce the report. They enlisted the help of 436 contributing authors, and a total of 1,729 expert and government reviewers.

The report concludes that responding to climate change involves making choices about risks in a changing world. The nature of the risks of climate change is increasingly clear, though climate change will also continue to produce surprises. The report identifies vulnerable people, industries, and ecosystems around the world. It finds that risk from a changing climate comes from vulnerability (lack of preparedness) and exposure (people or assets in harm’s way) overlapping with hazards (triggering climate events or trends). Each of these three components can be a target for smart actions to decrease risk.

"We live in an era of man-made climate change," said Vicente Barros, Co-Chair of Working Group II. "In many cases, we are not prepared for the climate-related risks that we already face. Investments in better preparation can pay dividends both for the present and for the future."

Adaptation to reduce the risks from a changing climate is now starting to occur, but with a stronger focus on reacting to past events than on preparing for a changing future, according to Chris Field, Co-Chair of Working Group II.

"Climate-change adaptation is not an exotic agenda that has never been tried. Governments, firms, and communities around the world are building experience with adaptation," Field said. "This experience forms a starting point for bolder, more ambitious adaptations that will be important as climate and society continue to change."

Future risks from a changing climate depend strongly on the amount of future climate change. Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe and pervasive impacts that may be surprising or irreversible.

Mayors Adapt - new EU Adaptation Initiative for cities

Fri, 13 Jun 2014 14:51:00 +0300

In the context of the EU Adaptation Strategy, the new EU Adaptation Initiative for cities – Mayors Adapt- is being launched in March 2014 through which local authorities can make a voluntary commitment to adopt local adaptation strategies and awareness-raising activities. It foresees the introduction of climate change adaptation within the framework of the Covenant of Mayors, building upon the success of the previous Commission (DG CLIMA)’s pilot project, EU Cities Adapt, and linking with the existing EEA online platform, Climate-Adapt. It builds further on the succeses of these, but removes previous thresholds and barriers for local authorities to get engaged (more flexibility within the requirements etc).

All information about Mayors Adapt can be found in the documents below.

Mayors Adapt - Covenant of Mayors

Mayors Adapt - Presentations

Mayors Adapt - Background Information

Mayors Adapt - EN Political Commitment

Mayors Adapt - Full Commitment Document

Mayors Adapt - Q&A

Surface Temperatures at the Continental Scale: Tracking Changes with Remote Sensing at Unprecedented Detail

Fri, 13 Jun 2014 09:40:00 +0300

Temperature is a main driver for most ecological processes, and temperature time series provide key environmental indicators for various applications and research fields. High spatial and temporal resolutions are crucial for detailed analyses in various fields of research. A disadvantage of temperature data obtained by satellites is the occurrence of gaps that must be reconstructed. Here, we present a new method to reconstruct high-resolution land surface temperature (LST) time series at the continental scale gaining 250-m spatial resolution and four daily values per pixel. Our method constitutes a unique new combination of weighted temporal averaging with statistical modeling and spatial interpolation. This newly developed reconstruction method has been applied to greater Europe, resulting in complete daily coverage for eleven years. To our knowledge, this new reconstructed LST time series exceeds the level of detail of comparable reconstructed LST datasets by several orders of magnitude. Studies on emerging diseases, parasite risk assessment and temperature anomalies can now be performed on the continental scale, maintaining high spatial and temporal detail. We illustrate a series of applications in this paper. Our dataset is available online for download as time aggregated derivatives for direct usage in GIS-based applications (Reconstructed MODIS Land Surface Temperature Dataset - http://gis.cri.fmach.it/eurolst/).

Source: Metz M, Rocchini D, Neteler M. (2014) Surface Temperatures at the Continental Scale: Tracking Changes with Remote Sensing at Unprecedented Detail.Remote Sensing 6(5): 3822-3840. doi: 10.3390/rs6053822

How big a change would 4.5 degrees celsius be?

Wed, 11 Jun 2014 09:54:00 +0300

By Michael Graham Richard (Treehugger.com)

Randall Munroe of the XKCD webcomic has tried to better visualize how what might seem to be relatively small temperature differences can lead to big changes on our planet. He uses 4.5 degrees celsius (8°F) as a unit of measurement, showing on the negative side how just 1 of those units was enough to create an ice age and burrow his neighborhood (he lives in Boston) under half a mile of ice. Minus 4 of those units and you reach snowball Earth, with ice from pole to pole. more ...

IMPRESSIONS Modellers Meeting: first steps towards the final vision

Wed, 30 Apr 2014 15:23:00 +0300

The first IMPRESSIONS Modeller’s Meeting took place between 14-16 April 2014 in London, UK to develop a detailed work plan for the climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation modelling within the project.

The target of the meeting was to formulate an integrated modelling framework and to design protocols for implementing that framework. These protocols aim to include an initial set of model runs that are linked to the requirements of the five multi-scale case studies and the different IMPRESSIONS Work Packages.

A conceptual framework for the modelling was agreed during the meeting and a work plan was drafted to further develop these first steps into a detailed modelling framework, which specifies the linkages between scenarios, sectoral and cross-sectoral models and scales of application across the five case studies (global, Europe, Iberia, Scotland and Hungary).

IMPRESSIONS includes a suite of existing climate change impact and adaptation models from European and international centres of excellence, including global and regional integrated assessment models, process-based models, simplified meta-models and mixed qualitative-quantitative participatory models. These will be combined with new models that overcome the limitations of conventional impact models, which fail to account for individual behaviour in the real world. These agent-based models will simulate adaptation as a process driven by the behaviour of individual decision-makers, firms and institutions that can learn and interact with each other.

The modelling work in IMPRESSIONS will explore policy and management approaches for developing and implementing integrated solutions under high-end climate change, which harmonise adaptation and mitigation strategies with sustainable development across multiple sectors and scales. The outputs from this modelling work are likely to offer a new set of reasons for people and organisations to reconsider their approach to climate change policies and actions, including a more precise justification for early, aggressive mitigation, and the reframing of the climate and development challenge.

Global warming: Improve economic models of climate change

Wed, 09 Apr 2014 14:18:00 +0300

Costs of carbon emissions are being underestimated, but current estimates are still valuable for setting mitigation policy, say Richard L. Revesz and colleagues.

On 31 March, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report on the impacts of climate change on humans and ecosystems (see go.nature.com/ad5v1b). These are real risks that need to be accounted for in planning for adaptation and mitigation. Pricing the risks with integrated models of physics and economics lets their costs be compared to those of limiting climate change or investing in greater resilience.

Last year, an interagency working group for the US government used three leading economic models to estimate that a tonne of carbon dioxide emitted now will cause future harms worth US$37 in today’s dollars

Nature (2014) 508: 173–175. doi: 10.1038/508173a

IMPRESSIONS: Advancing understanding of the consequences of high-end climate change

Tue, 11 Mar 2014 14:28:00 +0200

The large-scale European Union FP7 funded project IMPRESSIONS (Impacts and Risks from High-End Scenarios: Strategies for Innovative Solutions) is holding its official Kick-off Meeting from 13 to 15 January 2014 in Oxford, United Kingdom.

An international team of 27 research institutions from 18 countries will join forces to answer one of the hottest questions of our time, namely what will be the future of humankind and nature if climate continues to change at an unforeseen scale. The aim of IMPRESSIONS is to advance understanding of the consequences of high-end climate change and to evaluate how such knowledge can be embedded within effective and integrated adaptation and mitigation decision-making. In so doing, IMPRESSIONS will provide scientifically robust and policy-relevant information on the more extreme and long-term consequences of climate change to inform adaptation planning.

"Although, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change recognised that increases in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius to avoid severe impacts, current emission trends suggest that limiting warming to the 2 degrees Celsius target will be difficult to meet. Indeed, without significant reductions in emissions, projections point to much more substantial warming. Despite the increasing plausibility of these high-end scenarios, there are few studies that assess their potential impacts, the ability of adaptation options to reduce vulnerabilities, and the potential synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation." explains the project coordinator Dr Paula Harrison, University of Oxford.

Lately we are witnessing many extreme weather events which affect every sphere of human life. Last week the USA have been experiencing severely cold weather where temperatures have dropped to -50 degrees Celsius in some States. At the same time, many areas of the UK have been hit by very strong winds and high waves that have caused widespread flooding and the evacuation of thousands of people. Extreme weather events may increase in frequency under high-end climate change. Thus, there is an urgent need for decision-makers to have access to more reliable scientific knowledge on such highly uncertain, but socio-economically important, futures. The new knowledge developed by the project will not only focus on the EU, but will consider interdependencies – or shared vulnerabilities – with countries beyond the EU's borders, for example through food and resource supply chains or effects on large-scale migration.

To achieve its goals IMPRESSIONS will:

develop a novel stakeholder-driven methodology to create an integrated set of high-end climate and socio-economic scenarios;
apply these scenarios to a wide range of existing and new models of impacts and adaptation in five case studies covering global, European and regional/local (Scotland, Iberia and Hungary) scales;
embed the impacts modelling work within an innovative, integrated assessment approach which advances analysis of multi-scale and cross-sectoral synergies and trade-offs for adaptation planning;
work with public and private decision-makers in each case study to develop adaptation and mitigation pathways;
communicate the results to a broad community of stakeholders to enhance current approaches to climate change policies and actions.
The project will work together with two sister initiatives, HELIX and RISES-AM, to share the latest state-of-the-art research on the consequences of high-end climate change.

"Members of the HELIX project look forward to working closely with IMPRESSIONS and RISES-AM towards our common aims of assessing potential impacts of high-end climate change. Between us we will look across the whole globe as well as in detail in specific regions, and by coordinating our work and comparing and contrasting our methods and conclusions, we will be able to maximise our resources and assess the reliability of our conclusions." comments Prof Richard Betts, HELIX project coordinator.

Scottish launch of the flagship EU climate change project IMPRESSIONS

Tue, 11 Mar 2014 14:14:00 +0200

Scotland to be case study for IMPRESSIONS: A new EU funded 9 million euro research project will quantify risks and impacts associated with high-end (extreme) climate and socio-economic scenarios

The most extreme climate change projections could result in unprecedented impacts and risks for our economy, society and environment. A new EU project involving 27 research institutions in Europe and beyond will provide critical information for developing strategies and solutions for coping with these changes.

The IMPRESSIONS (Impacts and Risks from High-End Scenarios: Strategies for Innovative Solutions) project aims to increase our understanding of the consequences of high-end climate change. The project will also help decision-makers apply this knowledge within integrated adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Scotland has been chosen as a case study for this new 5-year €9 million EU-funded project. The work will build on another recently completed EU project – CLIMSAVE - which created an interactive web-based tool for citizens and policy makers to simulate climate change impacts across multiple sectors. Scotland was used as regional case study to test the tool.

Anna Beswick, Programme manager Adaptation Scotland, said:

'Organisations across Scotland are pioneering partnership approaches to climate resilience. We have excellent academics and a strong international reputation as a country that is taking a lead on developing ways to adapt to climate change. Both CLIMSAVE and IMPRESSIONS are high profile projects that highlight and confirm Scotland's position as a world leader in climate change adaptation.'

Paula Harrison from the University of Oxford and Coordinator of the CLIMSAVE and IMPRESSIONS projects, said:

'Current trends in greenhouse gas emissions point to substantial warming, with possible increases of 4oC or more in the long term unless there is radical action to cut emissions. Despite the increasing plausibility of these high-end scenarios, there are few studies that assess their potential impacts and the options available for reducing the risks. IMPRESSIONS will work closely with Scottish stakeholders to provide robust scientific information on these highly uncertain futures, so that they can make effective adaptation and mitigation plans.'

Mark Rounsevell, Project Leader for the University of Edinburgh, said:

'The range of organisations working on climate change adaptation in Scotland is a real asset to these kind of projects. In CLIMSAVE we were able to work with experts from academia and on-the-ground projects. This combination of experience in climate change adaptation work is a key to why Scotland has been chosen as a case study for the IMPRESSIONS project. This is a major project that we are all very much looking forward to contributing to.'

Minister for Environment and Climate Change Paul Wheelhouse said:

'I welcome Scotland's involvement in the IMPRESSIONS project. Recent unpredictable weather across the British Isles and further afield has demonstrated the major impact it can have - that's why it's important to look at new ways of dealing with the consequences of extreme weather, to adapt to the challenges communities face.

'The Scottish Government is showing leadership and building on progress already made to increase the resilience to the impacts of climate change by developing Scotland's first Climate Change Adaptation Programme. Severe weather events earlier in the winter demonstrated the value to communities and businesses in Scotland of having robust resilience measures in place, which prevented more significant impacts and damages.

'We take climate change extremely seriously and are working hard to help Scotland achieve our ambitious greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets and increase the resilience of Scotland's people, environment, and economy to the impacts of a changing climate based on the best possible scientific evidence.'

The results of CLIMSAVE and the plans for IMPRESSIONS will be presented at an event at the Edinburgh Centre for Carbon Innovation on Wednesday 19 February.

IMPRESSIONS Project

Tue, 11 Mar 2014 13:35:00 +0200

IMPRESSIONS will:

work with decision-makers to better understand their knowledge needs and maximise their active participation in the research;
develop a novel stakeholder-driven methodology for the creation of an integrated set of high-end climate and more extreme socio-economic scenarios;
apply these scenarios to a wide range of existing and new spatially-explicit models of impacts and adaptation in five case studies covering global, European and regional/local (Scotland, Iberia and Hungary) scales;
embed the impacts modelling work within an integrated assessment approach which advances the analysis of multi-scale and cross-sectoral synergies and trade-offs;
evaluate the time- and path-dependency of adaptation and mitigation options taking account of the non-linearity, complexity and tipping points described in the scenarios and impact model results;
communicate the results to a broad community of stakeholders to enhance current approaches to climate change policies and actions.