Innovative and effective decision-making under uncertainty

Co-leaders: FFCUL and SEI


Researchers will work with European decision-makers within each of the five case studies to gain a full understanding of the problems they face when making real-world decisions involving extreme climate change scenarios with high levels of uncertainty, and the tools and methods that could help to resolve these problems.


  • To develop a Common Frame of Reference that builds on new and previous insights to guide the engagement of decision-makers via the case studies in dealing with the uncertainties associated with high-end scenarios in the context of their existing decision conflicts and other (non-climate) long-term trends and risks;

  • To identify in an active dialogue the needs of decision-makers within the case studies, their capacities, drivers and barriers for using information about uncertain futures to assess options and strategies;

  • Тo ensure that insights gained from the empirical analysis are used to inform the detailed project workplan, so that scenario and model development in IMPRESSIONS can be advanced in ways that deliver useful and relevant results for decision-making;

  • To assess how decision-makers respond to the knowledge gathered via the case studies in order to enhance uptake of the project’s outputs and inform future decisions with the aim of increasing innovation, robustness and resilience to high-end scenarios.


Further information on each research area is provided through the following links:

Innovative and effective decision-making under uncertainty

Development of integrated multi-scale scenarios

Advancement of climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability (CCIAV) methods and models

Development of adaptation and mitigation pathways

Risks, opportunities, costs and benefits of adaptation and mitigation

Stakeholder engagement

Dissemination and outreach

Case studies