Advancement of climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability (CCIAV) methods and models

Co-leaders: SYKE and UEDIN


Existing models will be enhanced to improve the quantification of climate impacts under high-end scenarios, incorporating tipping points and non-linear effects. These will be combined with a new family of models developed to improve the representation of individual behaviour in the real world. These agent-based models will simulate adaptation as a process driven by the behaviour of individual decision-makers, firms and institutions that can learn and interact with each other.

The models will include interactions between different sectors, e.g. agriculture, forestry and biodiversity, and different regions, e.g. Europe and the rest of the world, as they compete for resources such as land, water and energy. The models will also allow the exploration of synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation actions, such as the potential for tree-planting to alleviate flooding as well as storing carbon.


  • To develop a multi-scale, integrated assessment approach that provides an improved quantification of cross-sectoral CCIAV, risks, opportunities, synergies and trade-offs under high-end climate and socio-economic scenarios;
  • To apply global scale CCIAV models to better quantify and understand risks and uncertainties, and define global scale boundary conditions for Europe;
  • To advance CCIAV models for Europe that combine improved cross-sectoral representation in spatially-explicit continental-scale integrated assessment models with agent-based models of institutional behaviour; and,
  • To advance CCIAV methods and models within European regions using detailed process-based models and complex systems approaches to capture and quantify knowledge about individual behaviour, institutional conditions and decision-making processes that underpin adaptation.


Further information on each research area is provided through the following links:

Innovative and effective decision-making under uncertainty

Development of integrated multi-scale scenarios

Advancement of climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability (CCIAV) methods and models

Development of adaptation and mitigation pathways

Risks, opportunities, costs and benefits of adaptation and mitigation

Stakeholder engagement

Dissemination and outreach

Case studies